Source: Shanghai Securities News
Central bank yesterday in the open market through reverse repurchase to the market to release 150000000000 yuan liquidity, the successful rate of 2.35% of the low. Such a large amount of money to reverse repurchase in the near future frequently appear, showing the central bank to launch short-term liquidity of the clear intent and strength.
Market participants believe that the central bank's monetary easing policy is emerging, which will boost the role of the economy, the central bank is expected to return through reverse repurchase, interest rates and other monetary policy tools to ensure that the market liquidity adequacy.
Central bank action frequently
Yesterday at the same time there are 150000000000 yuan reverse repurchase expires, the central bank through reverse repurchase funds to achieve zero. Just before the day, the central bank to interest rates tender to carry out short-term liquidity adjustment tool (SLO) operation, the scale of 140000000000 yuan, the successful rate of 2.35%, the operating period of 6 days.
In fact, since the end of 6, the central bank continued to release liquidity through open market operations to the market, but the amount of funds through reverse repurchase significantly increased in August.
Public information statistics show that in August 4th, 6, 11, 13, 18, 20, 25, 7, the central bank to carry out reverse repo, the deadline is 7 days, the cumulative amount of 715000000000 yuan. Among them, the August 20th and 25 are put in the amount of 150000000000 yuan, the successful rate of 25 days is also down 0.15 percentage points over the previous 6. August 25th evening, the central bank announced the reduction of deposit reserve ratio by 0.5 percentage points, the benchmark interest rate of 0.25 percentage points.
In the flow through the SLO, the central bank in August 26th, 28, 31, three intensive SLO operation, respectively, 140000000000 yuan, 2.30% yuan, 60000000000 yuan, 2.35% yuan, 140000000000 yuan, interest rate 2.35%.
The central bank in August 25, announced the "double down" cut (RRR) made it clear that the central bank has more control flow channels and tools, including RRR outside, expand the reverse repurchase, medium-term lending facility (MLF), mortgage of loans (PSL).
In terms of market interest rates, the RMB interbank lending market interest rates fell sharply yesterday, overnight interest rates remained at 7, 1.82% days, 14 days, 2 months of interest rates were decreased by 7, 23 and 20 basis points, the rate was 2.43%, 2.97% and 3.10%. Pledge repo, the 7 day, 14 days, respectively, fell 32 basis points and 5 basis points, the rate was 2.38% and 2.96%.
Guotai Junan Securities researcher Xu Hanfei that bank, Shibor, exchange and IRS market interest rates stable as a whole, only slightly upward, in the RRR cuts after short-term funds rate has fallen to levels before the adjustment of the exchange rate of RMB, the long end of the interbank deposit, negotiable instruments and monetary fund interest rates continued to steadily, not subject to tight liquidity effects.
Monetary policy easing open space
A number of agencies that central bank policy target return to economic underpinning and lower interest rates in the long end, open the loose monetary policy space.
Standard Chartered Bank research team said, is expected to introduce more easing policies when necessary to avoid a sharp drop in economic growth, specific measures or including a total of 1 percentage points before the end of the year, cut interest rates by 0.25 percentage points. With policy easing measures to gradually conduction to the real economy, will also support the business activities of small and medium enterprises.
"The central bank to increase monetary policy easing efforts, will increase the bank's lending to the real economy, the short-term economic growth will play a supporting role." Liu Ligang, chief economist at ANZ bank Greater China is expected in the fourth quarter, China may drop 50 basis points. At the same time, the central bank will also through reverse repurchase and non-traditional monetary policy tools to protect the inter-bank market liquidity adequacy.
Deutsche Bank Greater China chief economist Zhang Zhiwei believes that the introduction of monetary policy is effective, and will be reflected in the fourth quarter of this year, economic growth. Due to the market's response to a certain lag, fiscal and monetary policies are often required to play a role in the conduction period of the two quarter to play a role.
In terms of policy expectations, Zhang Zhiwei said that the fourth quarter will also have a drop quasi, or no longer cut interest rates. But if the four quarter economic performance is not satisfactory, the future is still further rate cuts down the quasi space.