中文 | English | 한국의 | Deutsch
News
Industry News
Photovoltaic industry: five major links of hit or next generation photovoltaic cell mainstream technology have investment opportunities
Update Time : 2020-01-16 View : 2704
Source: financial website
Author: China Merchants Securities family training team
In the past few years, the dividends brought by technological changes such as p-perc have promoted the significant decline of the cost of kilowatt hour and a round of great development of the industry. At present, the photovoltaic industry is in the eve of a new round of great technological development. Among them, high-efficiency batteries and large silicon wafers may be the most promising direction for breakthrough in the next few years. Among many high-efficiency battery technology routes, hit has some outstanding physical characteristics Sex and advantage. In recent years, some enterprises at home and abroad began to commercialize and promote hit batteries. The main contradiction at present is the availability of core equipment such as PECVD, and then it may continue to improve efficiency and reduce cost of consumables. Based on the current situation of the industrial end, we believe that the industrialization of hit battery is accelerating, and a breakthrough may be brewing.
abstract
1. The photovoltaic industry is in the eve of a new round of technological development. High efficiency batteries and large silicon wafers are likely to be the most promising breakthrough direction for the photovoltaic industry in the next few years. In the field of battery chip, n-type battery is the most recognized technical route in the industry. The two main directions of n-type battery are hit and TOPCON. Hit is likely to become the mainstream technology of the next generation due to its significant advantages and clear cost reduction path.
2. Hit has excellent physical characteristics and certain advantages. Hit generally adopts n-type route, with more efficient, low attenuation, good temperature coefficient and high double-sided rate. At present, the highest global efficiency is 26.7% created by Japan's Zhong Yuan, and the highest domestic efficiency can reach 25.11%. The mass production efficiency of the existing production line is generally 23.5% - 24%, and there is a large space for further improvement of the efficiency in the future. The main disadvantage of hit is its high cost, which is currently mainly used in some BOS markets with high cost. According to the existing BOM and BOS cost level, 1% efficiency advantage can bring a premium of 0.08-0.10 yuan / watt. With its efficiency improvement and cost reduction, the hit application market will continue to expand.
3. Industrialization is accelerating, and breakthroughs may be in the pipeline. At present, the global hit capacity is about 3gw, among which rec has put into operation 600MW commercial project in 2019, and a number of domestic enterprises have also begun to try and import before commercialization. It is estimated that the planned capacity is more than 20GW, and a number of benchmark projects will be put into operation in q2-3 in 2020. In terms of equipment, major equipment enterprises have made great progress in transformation efficiency in the past two years, and domestic listed companies of relevant equipment mostly focus on hit. The cleaning and cashmere making, PVD / RPD and screen printing at the equipment end have been broken through. The only difficulty lies in PECVD. Many enterprises at home and abroad are focusing on tackling key problems to improve the beat, stability and uniformity of PECVD and reduce the equipment price. There may be a big breakthrough next year. In addition to PECVD and other core equipment, the research and development of low-temperature silver slurry and target materials have made great breakthroughs and progress.
Investment suggestion
Continue to recommend: Longji shares and Tongwei shares;
Recommendation: Shanmei International (coal Union), Dongfang Risheng;
Equipment link recommendation: Jinchen Co., Ltd., Jiejia Weichuang (machinery joint venture), Maiwei Co., Ltd. (machinery joint venture);
Auxiliary materials: Suzhou solid technetium.
Risk tip: hit battery cost reduction progress is not as expected, mass production efficiency improvement is not as expected.
1. Hit has been published for 30 years, and technology accumulation brings breakthroughs
1.1 heterojunction battery from germination to maturity
Hit budding: 1989-1990. In Japan, Sanyo replaced the intrinsic microcrystalline silicon layer with amorphous silicon film, and the battery efficiency reached 14.5%, which was named hit. Sanyo registered hit as a trademark and the patent protection ended in 2015.
Hit exploration: 1991-2015. Many research institutions at home and abroad have optimized the hit process and explored different process routes. A small number of enterprises have established pilot lines, and the R & D efficiency is close to 25%.
Hit import: 2016-2019. In 2015, Sanyo patent protection expired, a large number of enterprises entered the field of hit, built more than a dozen pilot lines, and tried to introduce hit into commercial production. The mass production efficiency stood at 23%, and the R & D stood at 25%.
History of China's hit industry.
Early exploration: 2011-2014. Shangpeng, Cylon, Guodian and other enterprises have initially tried to introduce imported equipment.
Medium term attempt: 2015-2018. Zhongzhi, hanergy, Jinneng, Junshi and other enterprises set up pilot production lines to try mass production, and explored equipment technology and battery technology, but due to cost factors, they did not mass production.
Recent breakthrough: 2019. Hanergy's R & D efficiency reached 25.11%, becoming a new world record. The R & D efficiency of Jinneng and Junshi is close to 25%, and the mass production efficiency stands at 24%. Significant breakthroughs have also been made in the localization of target materials and silver pulp. The cost reduction path of hit is becoming more and more clear, and the cost performance ratio continues to improve. The number of enterprises with hit layout has expanded from 7 in the early stage to about 20 at present.
1.2 heterojunction battery process
The structure of hit battery: crystal silicon substrate + three layers of film on both sides. In hit battery, n-type monocrystalline silicon is used as the substrate, and the intrinsic amorphous silicon film, doped amorphous silicon film and metal oxide conductive layer TCO are successively deposited on the front and back sides, and then the positive and negative electrodes are made by screen printing to derive the current.
Manufacturing process of hit battery: cleaning and fluffing >; amorphous silicon film deposition >; TCO deposition >; making electrode >; testing and grading.
Clean and fluff making: remove impurities on the surface of silicon wafer, make pyramid fluff, reduce sunlight reflection. Hit battery requires making large suede, which is more difficult than perc.
Amorphous silicon deposition: PECVD equipment is mainly used for amorphous silicon film deposition, the film thickness is nanometer level, and the internal structure is relatively complex, semiconductor level technology, technology exploration focuses on this link.
TCO deposition: the metal oxide conductive layer TCO is deposited by PVD or RPD equipment, which is applied in the field of flat panel display

Copyright © 2024 FanMei Strategic Metal Resources Ltd. Shenzhen record / license number: ICP No. 14030609