Guide: China launched a novel coronavirus outbreak in December 2019. Then, with the help of the rush peak of the Spring Festival transport, the epidemic spread across the country, expanding the scope of the economic impact. It is certain that it will change or even change profoundly in the direction of China's economic transformation and the development of the industry and the future of Wuhan. This article will analyze China novel coronavirus epidemic under the influence of 20 possible industries. 20 industries can be roughly divided into medical, office, entertainment, life and technology. ]

In his phenomenal bestseller black swan, Taleb once wrote that the black swan incident refers to a very unpredictable and unusual event, which usually causes negative reaction or even subversion of the market chain. And the logic of "black swan" is: what you don't know is more meaningful than what you know.
In December 2019, a novel coronavirus outbreak occurred in Wuhan. Then, with the help of the rush peak of Spring Festival transportation, the epidemic spread across the country, expanding the scope of economic impact. The time node of the outbreak happens to be the Spring Festival, which makes the "holiday economy" of the Spring Festival of the year of the rat cold, and increases the impact of the epidemic on the economy. At the same time, the closure of many cities and villages across the country also temporarily shut down part of China's supply chain. Although the "black swan epidemic" event will not change the process of China's economic transformation and urbanization, it is certain that it will change the direction and prospects of China's economic transformation and industry development, or even profound changes.
This article will analyze China novel coronavirus epidemic under the influence of 20 possible industries. 20 industries can be roughly divided into medical, office, entertainment, life and technology. Among them, the medical sector is the main short-term benefit theme of the epidemic, while the office sector, entertainment sector, life sector and technology sector will also have different degrees of impact under the impact of the epidemic.
Figure 1: overview of 20 industries under the new crown epidemic
——Medical
Mask industry in the industry of "01, 20"
Since the outbreak of novel coronavirus, many enterprises began to cross the boundary mask, GAC group, SAIC GM Wuling, industrial Fu Lian, three gun underwear, BYD subsidiary, Foxconn and so on, all have issued the message of changing the mask.
Recently, the national development and Reform Commission, together with the Ministry of Finance and other departments issued documents to clarify that relevant medical protection materials have been included in the national reserve. As for the protective materials such as masks produced by enterprises to increase production and expand production capacity, the government will buy them. At the same time, local governments are encouraged to introduce relevant support policies. "
As of February 20, there are 54965 confirmed cases (including 11633 severe cases), 18264 discharged cases, 75465 confirmed cases and 5206 suspected cases in China. Novel coronavirus infection is still very severe in the epidemic situation of pneumonia, and it is also in panic buying situation because of the need for protection and epidemic prevention. The production of mask novel coronavirus pneumonia includes the production of export cover from polypropylene granules to medical non-woven fabrics, processing by mask machine, and then through strict disinfection and static analysis.
At present, behind the shortage of medical masks and other epidemic prevention materials is the shortage of mask machine, ear belt spot welder and other production equipment, as well as raw materials such as melt blown cloth, non-woven fabric and nose beam strip. One ton of melt blown cloth can produce one million medical surgical masks or more than 500000 N95 grade masks. One ton of polypropylene can produce 250000 masks. Polypropylene is the raw material of melt blown cloth and other non-woven fabrics. This chemical raw material is mainly provided by PetroChina and Sinopec, and the proportion of private enterprises is about 30%.
Figure 2: Mask industry chain map
With the development of mask production line, the production capacity of masks in China has been increasing. In recent five years, the output and output value of all masks in China have been increasing year by year. In 2019, the output of masks in China has reached 5 billion with a growth rate of 10.13%; the output value of all masks has reached 10.235 billion yuan with a growth rate of 12.57%.
Chart 3 of China Textile Business Association: output value of all masks in 2015-2019 (unit: 100 million yuan, 100 million pieces,%)
During the epidemic period, the purchase price of melt blown cloth and mask machine increased by a large margin
By February 10, 2020, the resumption rate of mask enterprises is 76%, and the production capacity of masks is about 16 million. Under normal circumstances, the daily output of masks in China is 20 million, that of surgical masks is 2.2 million and that of N95 masks is 600000. China has a population of 1.4 billion. If the daily demand is calculated as per the two-day exchange of ordinary population covers, the daily demand is 700 million. Considering the actual situation, the daily demand is 350 million, even if the return rate reaches 100% and the daily output reaches the maximum of 20 million, the gap is still huge. At present, it is not only China, but also the global resources of anti epidemic materials such as masks are facing the problem of shortage. As the demand for masks and other defense materials is sudden, it is difficult for any country's production capacity to support such a large demand.
Figure 4: production capacity of masks in China (unit: 10000 / day)
At present, in the face of the pneumonia epidemic, all parts of the country are increasing production day and night. After the outbreak, it is inevitable that the demand for masks will drop sharply. However, in terms of several major epidemic events, after the improvement of the national awareness, masks will gradually change from protective articles to daily necessities, which is likely to be included in the national strategic materials. Therefore, in the long run, the mask industry is a healthy sunrise industry.
02. Medical waste disposal industry in 20 industries
Medical Waste Division