Last Friday, the people's Government of Yunnan Province issued a circular on several measures to support the development of the real economy, the first of which is to support key enterprises to carry out commercial storage of non-ferrous metal products. According to the principle of "enterprise collection and storage, bank loan, financial subsidy, market operation, self financing profit and loss", the commercial collection and storage of copper, aluminum, lead, zinc, tin, germanium, indium and other key non-ferrous metal products in the whole province are carried out. The total collection and storage amount is about 800000 tons, and the collection and storage time is one year. The funds needed for collection and storage shall be borrowed from the bank by the enterprise in the form of product pledge. Provincial finance arranges a special fund of 1 billion yuan, and gives partial discount of bank loans to enterprises. Among them, 80% discount subsidy will be given to enterprises receiving and storing tin, germanium and indium, and 60% discount subsidy will be given to enterprises receiving and storing copper, electrolytic aluminum, lead and zinc. (led by Provincial Department of industry and information technology; coordinated by provincial development and Reform Commission, Provincial Department of finance, provincial local financial supervision bureau and provincial SASAC)
What is the impact of Yunnan government's support for commercial storage on the relevant metal market?
Indium: at present, there are no specific operating rules for indium, and market people are actively inquiring about it. However, there are also senior market people who say that from the perspective of policy analysis, in addition to the collection and storage, the government also has policies such as discount loans. For some large enterprises, especially those that auction a large amount of resources in Pan Asia, they can consider directly transferring bank mortgage loans. Because it is not the way of simple pledge before, but can take money to pick up goods first, then mortgage. This kind of direct bridge test operation will benefit some large enterprises.
Germanium: the large-scale germanium ingot manufacturers in Yunnan said that they have just received the notice. For the enterprises, the preferential policy of receiving, storing and giving discount interest must be a dividend, which reduces the financial cost of the enterprises to a certain extent. For industries with significantly larger supply than demand, the degree of implementation is high. At present, affected by the epidemic situation, the downstream consumption of germanium ingots at home and abroad is not good, and the mainstream large factories have a certain amount of inventory in their hands. If the short-term commercial reserve is made of part of the inventory, on the one hand, it will shrink the market supply and boost the market price, on the other hand, it will reduce the capital pressure of the manufacturers. Of course, up to now, the enterprise has not made clear the specific plan to be implemented, and it still needs to wait for the further implementation of this policy.
Copper: according to SMM research, the local copper enterprises did receive the notice, but did not make clear how to implement and how much to pay, which is still in the stage of initiative. For the copper market, due to the internal and external supply and waste copper problems, there is no surplus of copper spot, and even there is a shortage of copper in North China. The spot price increase and discount also maintain a high level. For the enterprise, the significance of storage behavior is not great, and the willingness to cooperate is not high, but if the enforcement can still bring further benefits to the spot market.
Aluminum: SMM believes: first of all, we need to consider whether the enterprise is willing to receive and store. At present, the aluminum price is close to the full average cost line. In terms of cash cost, there is a small profit phenomenon in the aluminum plant. If a large amount of storage is collected, it will affect its cash flow. In the context of the gradual recovery of consumption at present, aluminum enterprises need to consider whether there is a need for storage and collection. Secondly, we need to pay attention to the magnitude and duration of storage and collection of electrolytic aluminum. At present, the operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum in Yunnan is around 2.16 million tons, accounting for 5.97% of the total operating capacity of the country. If the storage volume is small, it is difficult to cause large water bloom in the market. In addition, the annual interest rate cost of the market capital is between 6% and 8%, and the annual holding cost of each ton of electrolytic aluminum is between 700-1000 yuan / ton according to the current aluminum price. If the annual total capital cost is between 70-100 million yuan (compared with the total government subsidy fund for copper, aluminum, lead, zinc and other metals of only 1 billion yuan) according to the 100000 ton / year storage of Yunnan Province, can the aluminum price return to more than 40 thousand yuan last year in one year There is still a big doubt about the potential. In view of the announcement that one of the collection and storage principles is "enterprises shall be responsible for their own profits and losses", it is also difficult to calculate the length of collection and storage. Finally, if the above uncertainties are excluded and the measures are carried out smoothly, there is a high probability that the supply of electrolytic aluminum market in Southwest China will be reduced, and the local price of electrolytic aluminum will be directly stimulated on the aspect of sentiment and supply and demand. In addition, due to the close distance between South China and southwest China, the logic of aluminum price rise in Southwest China may spread to the spot market in South China or even the whole country. Considering that next week is May Day In the last week of goods preparation, it is expected that the domestic aluminum price will maintain a strong shock in the short term, and continue to pay attention to the above 12800-13000 yuan / ton pass. SMM will also continue to follow up the impact of Yunnan Province's policy of encouraging enterprises to collect and store on the market. |
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