[metal annual meeting] for small metal products, supply, demand, cost, as well as market sentiment and mentality will be the main four factors influencing the price trend of small metal products. At present, the prices of many small metal products are still at a low level. Under the support of supply and demand and cost, price repair will be a long-term trend.
SMM, Feb. 4: today, at the 2020 annual meeting and long-term Carnival of nonferrous metals industry jointly held by Shanghai Nonferrous Metals network and China renewable resources industry technology innovation strategic alliance, Hu Yan, senior analyst of SMM small metals, reviewed and summarized the selenium, tellurium and germanium market under the new epidemic situation in 2020, and prospected the future market trend and price trend. She said that for small metal products, supply, demand, cost, as well as market sentiment and mentality will be the four main factors affecting the price trend. At present, the prices of many small metal products are still at a low level. Under the support of supply and demand and cost, price repair will be a long-term trend. China's small metal industry is widely distributed, and the productivity concentration of leading enterprises tends to be higher At present, domestic small metal smelters are scattered, but the concentration of leading enterprises is high; with the resource integration and industrial upgrading, the future capacity concentration will continue to increase; in recent years, most of the small metal products market is saturated, and there is little new capacity specially designed for small metals; with the steady increase of copper, lead and zinc and other basic metal production, as its accompanying varieties The supply of small metal products is on the rise. Market review: since 2017, the price of selenium dioxide has shown a downward trend, and a slight rise will appear in 2020. In the past three years, the highest price of selenium dioxide appeared in Q1, 2017. The centralized market procurement of large domestic manganese factories rapidly increased the downstream consumption demand, causing the price to soar to 280 yuan / kg; with the reduction of market procurement after replenishment, the selenium price also immediately fell back. In 2018, domestic consumption was always in a low state, and the operating rate of manganese enterprises was also reduced due to the impact of environmental protection, and the price continued to collapse in the absence of demand support; in 2020, the terminal consumption of domestic selenium market was basically stable, and with the continuous support of raw selenium from upstream raw materials, the price of selenium dioxide rose from 58 yuan / kg at the beginning of the year to the highest of 68 yuan / kg in the middle of the year. In 2020, due to the shortage of raw materials and spot supply, the price of tellurium ingot will rise steadily. In 2018, the price of tellurium ingot rose first and then decreased. At the end of 2017, the production of China National Building Materials Co., Ltd. in Chengdu increased market confidence. In addition, the expansion of production capacity of downstream enterprises in the first half of the year has also become a strong support to stimulate the upward trend of tellurium price. With the light export and price pressure during the summer break, and the profit taking of hoarders, the tellurium price began to fall back until the beginning of 2020. In 2020, the domestic tellurium ingot raw materials were in extreme shortage and the smelting production was in extreme shortage Due to the shortage of raw materials and finished products, the price of tellurium rose against the trend during the epidemic period and reached 460 yuan / kg by the end of November. In 2020, the new global epidemic will boost domestic consumption of germanium ingots, and the price of germanium will rise slightly. From the fourth quarter of 2017 to April of 2018, with the gradual release of overseas demand for germanium containing jewelry, the active downstream procurement and the reluctance of upstream suppliers to sell, germanium prices have risen all the way; subsequently, due to the contraction of export market, the increasing willingness of hoarders to ship goods, and the pressure of de stocking of domestic mainstream enterprises after restructuring, the market began to turn and the price was under pressure all the way; in 2020, it will become a new world-wide crown The epidemic situation led to the market consumption of forehead temperature gun and infrared thermometer, and the domestic supply increased year on year, and the price of germanium was stable and recovered slightly. Small metal production and import and export data in 2020, due to the tight release of raw materials, the output of selenium and tellurium will decrease slightly, and the epidemic situation will promote the downstream demand and increase the output of germanium ingot. The raw material supply of small metals, which are mostly associated products of basic metals, will increase with the increase of basic metal production. The supply of selenium and tellurium may increase. The continuous effect of environmental protection and high pressure will restrict the expansion of small metal production. The gradual elimination of small plants and the increase of capacity concentration of large plants are the current and future trends In 2020, the release of selenium and tellurium raw materials is limited. It is estimated that the output of selenium and tellurium will be 1120 tons, with a year-on-year decrease of 10%; the output of tellurium will be 260 tons, with a year-on-year decrease of 31.6%; the output of germanium ingot will be 135 tons, with a year-on-year increase of 28.6%; China will import 1175 tons of other selenium, with a year-on-year increase of 2.3%; the export of other selenium will be 304 tons, with a year-on-year increase of 15.2%; China's export of boron and tellurium will be 2095 tons from January to October 2020, with From January to October in 2020, China exported 24 tons of forged and rolled germanium and its products, with a year-on-year increase of 26.3%; from January to October of 2020, China exported 24 tons of forged and rolled germanium and its products, with a year-on-year increase of 26.3%. According to the data of the National Bureau of statistics, the official PMI of manufacturing industry in November this year was 52.1%, up 0.7 percentage points from the previous value. Since the second half of the year, it has been maintained above the boom and bust line for five consecutive months, that is, above the dotted line on the left. This shows that China's economy continues to improve. From the sub index point of view, the production index rose 0.8% to 54.7%, and the new order index rose 1.1% to 53.9%, indicating that demand is gradually recovering. The index of new export orders was 51.5%, up 0.5 percentage points from the previous value, showing a trend of monthly recovery for three consecutive months. We believe that the main reasons for the recent increase in manufacturing exports are: first, the growing recovery of overseas economy and the demand driven by holidays (Thanksgiving at the end of November and Christmas at the end of December); second, the decline of overseas production capacity caused by the recent repeated outbreaks (the number of confirmed cases in the United States has reached a new record, and other European countries such as Italy are facing re blockade). Since May, the resumption of work and production has been further promoted, and industrial production has been accelerated