Antimony: photovoltaic metal, the new five years -- Sino Thai metal observation (August 17, 2021)
Key points of investment: the market's understanding of China's advantageous strategic small metal "antimony" is also mostly "industrial monosodium glutamate", and the downstream is represented by flame retardant, which is relatively scattered and has low attention. Two expected differences were not fully recognized: 1) the price of antimony ingot increased by 60% from the low point of 37500 yuan to 70000 yuan / ton, and the cycle reversal of supply and demand structure was not controlled by the price in the stock price of leading companies; 2) More importantly, the demand in photovoltaic field is the blind spot of the market; Driven by the demand for photovoltaic glass clarifier, the growth rate of industry demand doubled, and the prosperity ushered in a new five years.
What is antimony? Antimony is a silvery white, shiny, hard and brittle metal. It is often made into rods, blocks, powders and other shapes. In nature, it mainly exists in sulfide mineral stibnite (Sb2S3). Antimony concentrate is commonly used to make antimony ingot, antimony oxide and ethylene glycol antimony. Historically, flame retardant materials are the main part of downstream applications, accounting for about 55%, followed by lead-acid batteries, accounting for 15%, polyester catalysis accounting for 15%, and glass ceramics accounting for about 10%.
Antimony supply: extremely scarce strategic mineral resources. 1) The supply is highly concentrated, and the global antimony reserves are about 1.87 million tons, of which China accounts for 26%, Russia accounts for 19% and Cr5 accounts for 82%; In terms of output distribution, China accounts for 53%, Russia accounts for 20% and Tajikistan accounts for about 18%. 2) Antimony is extremely scarce, and many countries list it as a key mineral resource. From the perspective of static storage production ratio, the global antimony metal can only meet the supply of 14 years, while the domestic antimony reserves can only meet the supply of 6 years. Because the main downstream application scenario of antimony is flame retardant, it is difficult to recover, so it is a highly scarce non renewable metal. According to the 2016 national mineral resources planning (2016-2020) of the Ministry of land and resources, antimony is listed as a key mineral resource. In addition, antimony is also listed as a key mineral resource in the United States, the European Union and Japan. 3) Historically, the global supply of antimony ore has been maintained at about 130000-150000 tons. In recent years, affected by the tightening of environmental protection policies in China, the output of antimony ore has decreased year by year. The overseas future increment is only the project of Huayu mining in Tajikistan, and the rest increment is limited. The supply side is expected to maintain a growth rate of about 2% - 3% from 2020 to 2025. 4) The inventory has been greatly removed. After the sharp rise of antimony price in 11-12 years, too much social inventory pressure has been accumulated, and the price fluctuates in the bottom range. Due to the tight supply of raw materials and the continuous improvement of the superimposed demand side, the enterprise inventory will be greatly reduced in 2020, and the manufacturer's antimony ingot inventory will drop by nearly 70% from the historical low of 9000 tons to 2710 tons.
Demand side: photovoltaic metal not recognized by the market. The cost of PV per kilowatt hour is close to the average power generation cost of domestic thermal power, and the parity grid access is close to reality in some regions. However, at present, the penetration rate of PV power generation is still low, and the PV installed capacity has entered a period of rapid growth. The PV installed capacity is expected to increase from 127gw to 370gw from 2020 to 2025. Antimony is mainly used in the manufacturing process of photovoltaic glass. Generally speaking, sodium pyroantimonate with the mass of mixture of 0.2% - 0.4% needs to be added. The demand for antimony in the photovoltaic glass field will reach 35000 tons in 2025, 29% in 2020-2025 CAGR, and the demand proportion in the photovoltaic field will range from 7.30% → 21.33%.
Investment suggestion: Antimony enters a new cycle of short supply. In the next few years, the domestic supply may maintain a shrinking trend. There are only new projects of Huayu mining overseas, and the CAGR at the supply end from 2020 to 2025 is 2% - 3%; On the demand side, with the rapid pull of photovoltaic demand, the overall growth rate of demand is expected to increase from 1% to 4% - 5%. Listed companies in relevant industrial chains include Hunan gold, Huayu mining, etc.
1、 What is antimony?
1.1 introduction to antimony industry chain
Antimony (English: antimony, element symbol sb, atomic number 51), a silvery white, shiny, hard and brittle metal, is often made into rods, blocks, powders and other shapes. It mainly exists in the sulfide mineral stibnite (Sb2S3) in nature. Soluble in aqua regia and concentrated sulfuric acid. The relative density is 6.68, the melting point is 630 ℃, and the boiling point is 1635 ℃.
The natural types of antimony ore can be divided into oxidized ore, mixed ore and primary ore. The standard is divided according to the antimony oxidation rate (%): oxidized ore > 50%, mixed ore 30% ~ 50% and primary ore
Antimony concentrate is commonly used to make antimony ingot, antimony oxide and ethylene glycol antimony. The process of antimony oxide forming antimony halide can slow down the combustion, so it is often used in the production of flame retardant, mainly used in plastics, rubber, paint, textile, chemical fiber and other industries, as well as glass, electronics, ceramics, phosphor and other industries; Antimony alloys have good mechanical strength and are often used in metallurgy, lead-acid batteries, military industry and other fields; Ethylene glycol antimony is the most novel catalyst used in polyester polycondensation.
1.2 resumption of historical trend of antimony price
From November 2008 to March 2011, the domestic antimony price increased by 315% from 26750 → 111000 yuan / ton. The resonance between supply and demand is the main catalytic factor of this round of upward cycle: 1) on the demand side, after the 2008 financial crisis, the world entered the liquidity easing cycle, launched large-scale economic stimulus plans one after another, and the global economy repaired rapidly; 2) On the supply side, in 2009, the Ministry of land and resources issued the notice on the total amount control indicators of tungsten, antimony and rare earth mining in 2009, which has become a catalyst for the accelerated rise of antimony price. With the slowdown of economic growth, the price of antimony gradually weakened.
From January 2016 to June 2017, the domestic antimony price increased by 85% from 33500 to 62000 yuan / ton. It is mainly the supply side catalytic factor, the price breaks down the industry cost line, the domestic environmental protection efforts are continuously strengthened, and the supply contraction is expected to catalyze the upward price.
From July 2020 to now, the domestic antimony price has increased by 95% from 37500 to 73000 yuan / ton. The main catalytic factors are: affected by the epidemic situation and domestic environmental protection factors, the mine output is declining, the superimposed logistics and transportation are not smooth, and the raw materials are tightening as a whole. Downstream demand benefited from the loose policy of the Federal Reserve, the traditional demand gradually entered the recovery cycle, while the new consumption photovoltaic glass field maintained rapid growth, and the inventory of antimony ingots reached 70%.
2、 Antimony supply: extremely scarce strategic mineral resources
2.1 highly concentrated and non renewable strategic metals on the supply side
Antimony is highly concentrated. The content of antimony in the earth's crust is very low and difficult to enrich. It mainly exists in the form of sulfide and sulfur salt minerals. At present, there are more than 120 kinds of antimony minerals and antimony containing minerals, but only more than 10 kinds of antimony minerals have industrial utilization value. According to USGS data, the global antimony reserves are about 1.87 million tons, including 26% in China, 19% in Russia, 17% in Bolivia, 14% in Kyrgyzstan, 7% in Australia and 82% in Cr5; In terms of output distribution, China accounts for 53%, Russia accounts for 20% and Tajikistan accounts for about 18%.
Antimony is extremely scarce, and many countries list it as a key mineral resource. From the perspective of static storage production ratio, the global antimony metal can only meet the supply of 14 years, while the domestic antimony reserves can only meet the supply of 6 years. Because the main downstream application scenario of antimony is flame retardant, it is difficult to recover, so it is a highly scarce non renewable metal. According to the 2016 national mineral resources planning (2016-2020) of the Ministry of land and resources, antimony is listed as a key mineral resource. In addition, antimony is also listed as a key mineral resource in the United States, the European Union and Japan.
2.2 historically, the supply of antimony ore fluctuated between 130000 and 150000 tons
In recent years, the global supply of antimony ore has remained stable. In recent years, the global output of antimony ore has remained between 130000-150000 tons, and the growth rate has not expanded significantly. According to different countries, the output of antimony ore is gradually decreasing due to the influence of resources and environmental protection policies in China; In terms of overseas mines, Tajikistan and Russia are the main new suppliers after 17 years.
Tajikistan: 1) the main mine under production is anzob mercury antimony mine under comsap Minerals Co., Ltd., with an antimony production capacity of about 10000 tons / year; 2) Huayu mining's 16000 metal ton project in Tajikistan was originally planned to be put into operation at the end of 19, but now it is postponed to the end of 21. The overall resources of Tajikistan account for only 3% of the world, and the output accounts for nearly 20% at present. It is unlikely that Tajikistan will increase production significantly.
Russia: 1) the main producer is olympiada gold antimony mine owned by polar gold company (Polyus), which plans to produce 15000-20000 tons of antimony metal every year. The output of antimony in 2019 is 14773 tons and 10958 tons in 2020, a year-on-year decrease of 26%. 2) The Far East antimony gold mine has a reserve of about 110000-180000 metal tons.
Australia: the main producer is costfield gold antimony mine under Mandalay resources, with antimony reserves of about 17800 tons and mining life of about 4-5 years. It is expected that the production will remain stable in the future. In 2020, the output of antimony is about 3903 tons, with a year-on-year increase of 92%; In the first half of 2021, a total of 1690 tons of antimony were produced, a year-on-year decrease of 18%.
United States: the stibnet gold antimony mine held by Midas gold has 67400 tons of antimony reserves. It is expected to start commercial operation in 2026 and the service life of the mine is 14.3 years.
2.3 domestic antimony ore supply: the chain comparison policy is stricter and the supply continues to shrink
The distribution of domestic resources also has the characteristics of relative concentration. At present, the proved antimony deposits are distributed in 19 provinces (autonomous regions) of China. It is mainly concentrated in Hunan (accounting for about 25.2%), Guangxi (20.9%), Tibet (14.8%), Guizhou (12.6%), Yunnan (9.4%), Gansu (5.8%), Guangdong (2.4%), etc. Hunan has the largest antimony mine in China - the tin mine in Lengshuijiang City, Hunan Province (a wholly-owned mine of Hunan Shanxing antimony industry).
In recent years, the overall output of domestic antimony ore is in a shrinking trend. 1) The static reserve production ratio of domestic antimony reserves is only 6, and antimony resources are highly scarce resources; 2) From 2009 to 2014, the total amount of antimony mining was controlled in China, and the application for antimony exploration right and mining right was suspended. In recent years, environmental protection supervision has become stricter, and antimony production has shrunk day by day.
2.4 inventory: it is greatly reduced and remains low as a whole
After the sharp rise of antimony price in 11-12 years, too much social inventory pressure was accumulated, and the price fluctuated in the bottom range. Due to the tight supply of raw materials and the continuous improvement of the superimposed demand side, the enterprise inventory has been greatly removed in 2020. The manufacturer's antimony ingot inventory has decreased by nearly 70% from 9000 tons to 2710 tons. Similarly, the antimony oxide inventory has also been greatly removed.
3、 Antimony demand: the biggest expected difference - Photovoltaic metals ignored by the market
3.1 antimony is widely used downstream
Antimony is widely used in flame retardants, batteries, metal alloys, chemicals and other fields. In the downstream application field, flame retardant materials are the main part, accounting for about 55%, followed by lead-acid batteries, accounting for about 15%, polyester catalysis accounting for about 15%, and glass ceramics accounting for about 10%.
Flame retardant: antimony halide flame retardant has a mature production process, excellent cost performance, and can achieve the best flame retardant effect in a small amount. Therefore, it has occupied a leading position in the field of flame retardant for a long time, and is indispensable for its application in plastic products and electronic and electrical products prone to fire. From the downstream consumption of flame retardants, 65% are used in the field of plastics, 20% in the field of rubber and 5% in textiles.
Lead acid battery: lead antimony alloy has the advantages of corrosion resistance and long service life. It is mainly used for the positive plate of lead-acid battery. In recent years, the market scale of lead-acid battery in China has maintained a stable growth. In 2020, the output of lead-acid batteries in China will be 227.36 million KVA, with a year-on-year increase of 12.28%.
Polyester fiber: antimony compound is an excellent catalyst with high activity and less side effects. It is the core catalyst in polyester fiber production.
3.2 PV demand neglected by the market
Over the past decade, the photovoltaic industry has achieved significant cost reduction, the cost of silicon and non silicon materials has been continuously reduced, and the battery efficiency has been continuously improved. Taking China as an example, the cost corresponding to unit photovoltaic power generation in 2018 has been reduced by 77% compared with that in 2010, the kWh cost has been close to the average power generation cost of domestic thermal power, and the parity Internet access has been close to reality in some regions, However, at present, the penetration rate of photovoltaic power generation is still low. According to wind data, the global photovoltaic power generation accounted for only 2.7% in 2019 and 3% in China. With the further reduction of photovoltaic power generation cost, the penetration rate of photovoltaic power generation will also be further improved.
The proportion of demand in photovoltaic field increased rapidly. The rapid development of photovoltaic industry promotes the rapid increase of photovoltaic glass production lines. In the process of manufacturing photovoltaic glass, clarifiers need to be used to improve the color and transparency of glass. According to the action mechanism of glass clarification, it can be divided into oxide clarifier, sulfate clarifier, halide clarifier and composite clarifier. The compound clarifier (sodium pyroantimonate) integrates three clarification synergy advantages, can achieve the effect of continuous clarification and greatly enhance the clarification ability, which is unmatched by a single clarifier. According to the glass network information, sodium pyroantimonate generally needs to add 0.2% - 0.4% of the mass of the mixture in the manufacturing process of photovoltaic glass. Assuming that the photovoltaic installed capacity will reach 370gw in 2025, the demand for antimony in the photovoltaic glass field will reach 35000 tons, and the CAGR in 2020-2025 will be 29%, and the demand proportion in the photovoltaic field will range from 7.30% → 21.33%.
3.3 entering a new cycle of supply shortage
Antimony has entered a new cycle of short supply. In the next few years, the domestic supply will continue to shrink. There are only new projects of Huayu mining overseas, and the CAGR at the supply end will be 2% - 3% from 2020 to 2025; On the demand side, with the rapid pull of photovoltaic demand, the overall growth rate of demand is expected to increase from 1% to 4% - 5%.
4、 Investment suggestions and related industrial chain enterprises
The expected difference is 1: the price of antimony ingot has nearly doubled from the low point of 37500 yuan to 70000 yuan / ton. The share price of antimony related target is still in the bottom range, which does not fully reflect the rise of antimony price.
Poor expectation 2: the new demand for photovoltaic is ignored by the market. Antimony is used as clarifier in the production of photovoltaic glass. The addition amount is only 0.2% - 0.4%, and the unit dosage is small, which is not fully recognized by the market. Under the background of the rapid growth of photovoltaic installed capacity, the production capacity of photovoltaic calendered glass is rapidly released, and the demand for antimony is expected to range from 97 → 35000 tons, with a CAGR of 29% in 2020-2025, accounting for 8.11% → 21.33%.
On the whole, we believe that in the next few years, the domestic supply may maintain a contraction trend. There are only new projects of Huayu mining overseas, and the CAGR at the supply end from 2020 to 2025 is 2% - 3%; On the demand side, with the rapid pull of photovoltaic demand, the overall growth rate of demand is expected to increase from 1% to 4% - 5%. Antimony may enter a new cycle of short supply.
Hunan gold
The company mainly owns mines such as Chenzhou Mining, Gansu Jiaxin and Xinlong mining headquarters, Longshan gold antimony mine and Anhua Zixi antimony mine. The alloy has antimony resources of about 29