Since the second quarter of 2020, with the domestic economic recovery and the changes in the epidemic situation at home and abroad, economic and international relations, superimposed with factors such as China's environmental protection and overcapacity at the front end of some relevant industrial chains, almost all relevant magnetic raw material prices have been on the road, with the increase of more than double for many varieties and more than triple for others, And some varieties are in short supply.
This paper briefly analyzes the reasons and effects of the sharp rise in the price of magnetic raw materials in the past year, which can be used as a reference for industry enterprises.
1、 Main factors leading to the rise of raw materials in recent years
1. Environmental protection policy restrictions and strict control have led to abnormal production and shutdown of raw material enterprises
2. In winter, the power supply is insufficient, and many places switch off and limit power, resulting in abnormal production of raw material enterprises
3. Domestic iron and steel enterprises' production restriction and process adjustment lead to the tightening of domestic iron red
4, the spread of COVID-19 abroad has led to the production stoppage of some raw material enterprises, and the reduction in export to China and the price rise sharply (such as upstream iron ore and related raw materials).
5. Production lines are shut down due to foreign environmental protection management (for example, several desilication lines are shut down due to environmental protection in Korea)
6. The growth of new energy vehicles has stimulated the continuous rise in the price of relevant raw materials (such as cobalt)
7. The domestic epidemic situation was effectively controlled, and the economic recovery was superimposed on the national new infrastructure to drive the rise of domestic economic development demand
8. China's new energy application market continues to grow (solar energy, wind power, electric vehicles, etc.)
9. The domestic and international market demand for detection, epidemic prevention, control and treatment products and the demand for housing economy increased
10. The foreign epidemic has led to the growth of imports of Chinese products and dependence on them for a certain period of time
11. Some high-end raw materials have been restricted by the export of developed countries such as the United States
12. The U.S. monetary policy has been stimulated by unlimited easing, taking advantage of the dollar's dominant position to release water, increasing the risk of inflation and pushing up commodity prices
13. The global supply of new crown vaccine increased, the epidemic situation in some countries was gradually controlled, production resumed, and the demand for bulk commodities increased
14. Impact of international political turmoil (for example, the continued turmoil of Myanmar's military coup affects China's rare earth mine supply)
15. Impact of China's relevant resource policies (e.g. "rare earth management regulations for comments" issued in early 2021)
16. Other relevant factors
In recent years, the decisive factor of rare earth market mainly depends on the supply side. Rare earth rose sharply in October 2016 and may 2019, mainly due to the tight supply of rare earth at the policy end. Unlike before, since march2020, the rare earth market has been mainly due to the shortage of supply and demand, and the increase of demand side has played a certain role.
2、 Main impact of substantial increase in raw materials
1. The shortage of raw materials has led to a sharp rise in prices, hoarding in the market, increased copying and speculation atmosphere, short supply of some varieties, raising the production cost of magnetic materials, but downstream users can not accept the simultaneous price increase in the same proportion. In special times, enterprises have no raw material production, and the price increase of products of magnetic materials enterprises is limited, which has compressed the profit space of enterprises, Enterprises need to purchase raw materials at a high price, but most enterprises have an accounting period of less than one month, up to 3-6 months, which damages the sound development of enterprises.
2. As users of magnetic materials, most industrial enterprises in the downstream have relatively loose choices. In order to reduce costs and occupy the market, the upward adjustment price of downstream end products is limited. When the price of raw materials rises too fast, they can choose from wait-and-see, which poses great pressure on magnetic material enterprises, especially conventional product manufacturers.
3. In order to reduce costs and prices, some downstream enterprises choose to replace relatively low-cost raw materials and magnetic materials, and some enterprises even stop using them under cost and market pressure.
4. If domestic raw materials of some varieties such as rare earths rise too fast, it will continue to stimulate foreign production and balance market supply and demand.
5. The continuous price rise in the upstream will inevitably restrain and affect the demand for downstream applications.
3、 Pay attention to the main factors affecting the price change of raw materials in the future
1, the global epidemic caused by COVID-19 mutation led to the uncertainty of the epidemic.
2. International Relations and geopolitical changes
3. National resource policy and environmental protection
4. Downstream market changes
5. Changes in the supply chain lead to changes in the application market. For example, the shortage of high-end chips in China and the shortage of global automotive and mobile phone chips lead to changes in relevant downstream markets such as automobiles and mobile terminals
6. Changes in the international supply chain, such as the acceleration of rare earth cooperation between the United States and Australia and the start of rare earth production in the United States
7. New sources of supply and new market areas
In the future, affected by various comprehensive factors, the price of magnetic material raw materials will fluctuate at a high level for a certain time. Due to the great difference between the supply and demand of various raw materials, some varieties still maintain the upward trend, but will not continue all the way up. It will be adjusted when there is a serious imbalance between national policy regulation and market supply and demand and price, and will be relatively stable in a certain reasonable price range in the future, However, due to many influencing factors, the uncertainty increases.
4、 Conclusion
1. The price of raw materials is mainly determined by the relationship between market supply and demand. When the market supply and demand is unbalanced, the price and voice may be distorted, and there will be a large influx of hot money and opportunists in the market, but things will be reversed, and the market will eventually tend to be relatively balanced.
2. Pay attention to the changes in the internal and external environment affecting the relationship between supply and demand, especially the impact of the international situation, and make a good prediction and response.
3. China is the world's largest buyer of iron ore and the world's largest supplier of rare earths. We should consider and review why we can't have the international voice and active bargaining power, strengthen the governance of industry chaos (dispersion, imitation, following the trend, disorder, failure to work together in bidding in foreign markets, mutual demolition and internal friction, fierce struggle in bidding in domestic markets Bid up the target speculation, maliciously kill the price, etc.)!
4. Resources are limited. Enterprises and the market cannot accept the price of raw materials seriously deviating from the value (at present, the value of iron and steel and iron oxide is upside down, and the quality stability is declining). We cannot sell valuable non renewable national strategic resources at a low price.
5. Only by reasonably reflecting the value of resources, maintaining and stabilizing the balance between supply and demand and preventing price fluctuations can we effectively protect China's magnetic material industry, enterprises and downstream application industries!
Source: magnetic materials branch