On August 25, 2021, the indium price broke through the phased high of 1460 yuan / kg on September 23, 2020, reaching a three-year high of 1620 yuan / kg. Indium, as a strategic metal of hjt industrial chain, must be observed! Therefore, let's discuss the following related issues today:
(1) Trend of indium price and its relationship with hjt industrial chain?
(2) What impact does the development of hjt industrial chain have on indium?
(3) Can the development of hjt industrial chain be indium free?
(4) Will the soaring price of indium hinder the development of hjt industrial chain?
(5) Is the trend of hjt industrial chain outbreak determined?
(6) The linkage of photovoltaic industry, secondary stock market and commodity market?
(7) How should the cell enterprises in the photovoltaic hjt industry deal with it?
(8) How should target enterprises obtain long-term competitive advantage?
(9) Our basic position on target and indium!
1、 Trend of indium price and its relationship with hjt industrial chain
The correlation between indium price and hjt industrial chain starts from August 2020. On August 22, 2020, Shanmei International announced the layout of hjt industrial chain, phase I 3gw. The price of indium has soared since August 21, 2020, from 960 yuan / kg to 1460 yuan / kg on September 23. Although Shanmei International did not substantially promote the hjt project in the end, the indium price has never returned to the 3-digit level since then.
The current round of surge in indium price began on July 26, 2021, and the first wave rose from 1160 yuan / kg to 1350 yuan / kg on August 6. The main reason for this round of rise is related to the large-scale recruitment of hjt team and the plan to start 1GW project (long-term planning of 50gw) by a leading PV module enterprise. The catalysis of the above news in the stock market began on August 4, and the largest increase in the commodity market also occurred from August 4 to August 6.
The second wave of the current round of indium price rise began on August 23. Within three days, the indium price rose from 1310 yuan / kg to 1620 yuan / kg, reaching a three-year high. The main reason for this round of rise is the hjt heterojunction commercialization Summit Forum held by solarzoom optical storage Yijia and Soochow machinery. This summit forum of hjt industrial chain is the first industry summit after hjt's low-cost commercialization. At the meeting, solarzoom optical storage Yijia and Maiwei shares successively discussed the relationship between hjt industrial chain and indium. In this round of rise in indium price, the response of the stock market began on August 19, and the hjt index rose 27% in just five trading days from August 25. Although the rise of indium price was started two trading days late, the rise of metal price was as high as 24%.
Indium price hit a three-year high
The price of indium is still at a low level in the past 10 years
The recent acceleration of the hjt index
Therefore, from the perspective of indium metal trading, the development of hjt industry has become the core driving factor leading indium price.
2、 What impact does the development of hjt industrial chain have on indium
ITO target is an excellent choice for TCO coating process of hjt battery, and it is also the first choice in hjt industry at present. 90-97% of the components of ITO targets are indium oxide. Therefore, the emerging hjt industrial chain constitutes the incremental demand for indium.
According to the calculation of solarzoom new energy think tank, the indium metal consumed per production of 1GW hjt battery is about 4.0 tons. In the PPT of Maiwei Co., Ltd. at the hjt Summit on August 20, the indium metal consumed per 1GW of hjt battery was about 2.89 tons. The difference between solarzoom new energy think tank and Maiwei shares is mainly due to the different assumptions on the recovery rate of indium metal and the different proportion of indium oxide in ITO. We assume that the utilization rate of the residual target is 95%, the recovery rate of the baffle carrier is 75%, and we assume that both 9010 and 973 products are used.
At present, as the hjt industrial chain has not been industrialized on a large scale, there is no data on the recovery rate of GW or 10GW targets. Therefore, the above parameters can be used as an estimated value temporarily.
According to the calculation of solarzoom new energy think tank, if carbon neutralization is accelerated in 2040, the global new installed capacity of photovoltaic industry chain is expected to increase to 2000gw / year around 2035, which is more than ten times higher than 130gw in 2020. If hjt technology and hjt + perovskite laminated technology are considered as the mainstream direction in the future, it will bring an incremental demand for indium of up to 8000 tons / year. Compared with the original demand of about 1600 tons of indium per year, the impact of the outbreak of hjt industrial chain can be said to be very huge.
Even if calculated according to the level of 200GW, the hjt industrial chain will lead to an indium demand of 800 tons / year, which is enough to greatly change the current supply-demand relationship of indium metal and cause the indium metal price to move according to the new equilibrium point.
Our conclusion is that the outbreak of hjt industry will lead to a substantial increase in indium demand, which may lead to the fluctuation of indium price.
3、 Can the development of hjt industrial chain be indium free
Will the hjt industrial chain use indium free azo as the material for TCO coating? This problem is actually an economic problem. As we all know, azo is inferior to Ito in conductivity and light transmittance, but its component structure does not contain indium. The cost performance comparison between ITO and azo mainly focuses on two factors:
(1) How much lower is the efficiency of pure azo coated hjt battery than ITO? What is the price discount of components corresponding to low efficiency?
(2) What is the impact of indium price on cost?
According to the analysis of solarzoom new energy think tank, compared with low-efficiency batteries, high-efficiency batteries can save cost items related to components, BOS and area. This includes glass, adhesive film, support, cement foundation, component installation labor, etc. The value of the above items in the cost structure of domestic photovoltaic power plants is about 0.9 yuan / w (including tax). Therefore, the sales premium corresponding to a 1% higher conversion efficiency of the battery (i.e. 4.17% on the basis of 24% battery efficiency) is reduced by 0.038 yuan / W.
According to the data provided by Maiwei Co., Ltd., the efficiency of hjt battery of pure azo is about 0.5% lower than that of hjt battery based on ITO. Therefore, the corresponding sales premium is converted into 0.019 yuan / W, and the difference excluding tax is 0.017 yuan / W.
In other words, if the cost per w of ITO target significantly exceeds 0.017 yuan / W compared with that of azo target, the cost performance of azo will be higher. Assuming that the processing costs of azo target and ITO target are the same, solarzoom think tank calculates that when the indium price reaches about 5000 yuan / kg, the cost per w of ITO target is about 0.017 yuan / W higher than that of azo target. In other words, as long as the price of indium does not rise more than 5000 yuan / kg, it is more favorable to use ITO than azo. If the indium price significantly exceeds 5000 yuan / kg, the hjt industrial chain has sufficient motivation to replace ITO with azo.
Considering the "overshoot" of the cost performance balance point and the high level of historical indium price (6250 yuan / kg), when the hjt industrial chain breaks out, the indium price will not cause large-scale substitution effect of demand until it rises to the historical high of 5000-6000 yuan / kg.
4、 Will the soaring price of indium hinder the development of hjt industrial chain
According to the calculation of soalrzoom new energy think tank, even if the price of indium rises to 5000 yuan / kg, the target cost will not exceed 0.03 yuan / W when considering recovery, film optimization and half azo replacement on the back. If the indium price rises to 11000 yuan / kg, the target cost per w just rises to 0.05 yuan / W.
According to the calculation of solarzoom new energy think tank, the cost performance advantage of hjt battery over perc battery is about 0.17-0.30 yuan / W. The cost performance difference between the two depends not only on the difference of production cost, but also on the sales premium brought by high efficiency and high power generation per w in the whole life cycle.
Considering that the cost difference of the target at the current indium price level, 5000 yuan / kg and 11000 yuan / kg indium price level is only about 0.03 yuan / W, we believe that the indium price will not affect the cost performance advantage of hjt on perc and other technologies. If indium price has an impact on the development of hjt's industrial chain, it only affects the inner feelings of relevant decision-makers of traditional perc leading enterprises. However, the development of hjt industrial chain is jointly promoted by the new entrants of hjt battery components and the transformants of perc battery components. Even if the eight leaders of perc battery components enterprises do not transform hjt at all, there will be countless new entrants similar to Anhui Huasheng, diamond glass and China Resources Power, which will promote the development of hjt industrial chain.
Therefore, our conclusion is that the soaring price of indium will not hinder the development of hjt industrial chain.
5、 Is the trend of hjt industrial chain outbreak determined?
The outbreak trend of hjt industrial chain is highly certain. The reasons are as follows.
1. Hjt is more cost-effective than perc and other battery technologies
The cost performance comparison of different battery technologies mainly depends on three items: production cost, efficiency premium and power generation premium. Hjt has a sales premium of 0.36 yuan / w (including tax) compared with perc, while the production cost of hjt is basically flat compared with perc from the end of 2021 to the middle of 2022. Therefore, the cost performance advantage of hjt over perc is significant.
2. Hjt battery achieved low-cost commercial mass production in March 2021, reached production in July, and the commercialization of hjt battery has entered the "right side"
Taking the world's first hjt low-cost commercial mass production project as an example, one of Maiwei's production lines has achieved full production of 8000 pieces / hour, with an average efficiency of nearly 24.2% and a comprehensive yield of 98% (EL defect has been considered); If this item is not considered, the yield is 99%).
3. Hjt industrial chain has a steady stream of new entrants
After Anhui Huasheng 500MW production line is put into production, the preliminary preparations for 2gw production expansion have been started recently. In addition, the hjt project of diamond glass 1.2gw has been substantially started, and the real estate capital implied behind it is preparing to lay out the industry on a large scale.
Recently, major media have reported the investment plan of 12gw hjt battery modules of China Resources Power, and 3gw is planned for phase I. According to the research of solarzoom new energy think tank, China Resources power project is relatively reliable, and China Resources Group is very determined to layout the photovoltaic industry on a large scale.
Therefore, even the eight leading points of perc industrial chain (Tongwei, Longji, aixu, Jingke, Jingao, Tianhe, Runyang and Atlas) do not distribute hjt, and the development trend of hjt industry chain will not be affected. Moreover, the 250MW heterojunction low-cost mass production line of atlas has reached production capacity, the 1GW heterojunction low-cost mass production line of Tongwei has been produced, the bidding for the 250MW pilot line of Jingao has been completed, and Longji and Trina Solar have also begun to layout hjt recently.
4. Financial capital's belief in hjt has been formed
Since July 23, 2021, the excess return of hjt index has increased significantly compared with perc. Through the hjt Industry Summit on August 20, 2021 jointly organized by solarzoom new energy think tank and Soochow machinery (all domestic top public funds participated), hjt technology has fully become an unshakable belief of global financial capital. Financial capital will affect the investment behavior of industrial capital by affecting the valuation of the secondary market. Therefore, the capital market will become an important force to accelerate the hjt trend.
According to the statistics of solarzoom new energy think tank, key institutions participating in the industrial Summit on August 20 include but are not limited to:
a) Public funds: e Fangda, huitianfu, Huaxia, GF, Nanfang, Fuguo, harvest, BOCOM Schroeder, Cathay Pacific, Hua'an, Boshi, Yinhua, Dongfanghong, etc,
b) Insurance funds: China Life Insurance, Taikang assets, Taiping assets, Yingda insurance, social security fund, etc,
c) Private equity funds: Gao Yi assets, Biyun capital, etc.
To sum up, the trend of hjt industrial chain outbreak is 100% determined! According to the estimation of solrzoom new energy think tank, the shipment volume of hjt battery modules will reach at least 10GW, 30GW, 100gw and 200GW from 2022 to 2025. This can be used as the basis for estimating the incremental demand for indium metal.
6、 Linkage of photovoltaic industry, secondary stock market and commodity market
We believe that the linkage among photovoltaic industry, secondary stock market and commodity market will be stronger and stronger. as a result of:
(1) The information sets of photovoltaic industry, secondary stock market and commodity market will be highly overlapped. The hjt Summit on August 20 will be attended by both top hjt industrial chain enterprises and top capital. From then on, the linkage between the two will be very close. Many fund managers and researchers in the capital market are unable to invest in stocks due to compliance problems and will participate in the commodity market. Therefore, the linkage between the stock market and the commodity market is also very close.
Based on the rise of indium price before and after the announcement of Shanmei international project last year and the synchronous rise of hjt index and indium price in the past month, the linkage of photovoltaic industry, stock secondary market and commodity market in information set has begun.
(2) The existence of arbitrage mechanism. The arbitrage mechanism of the photovoltaic industry for indium price is as follows: when the indium price rises too high, azo will be developed to replace ITO, so as to reduce the incremental demand for indium. When the indium price is at a historically low level (below 2400 yuan / kg), potential hjt players in the photovoltaic industry will carry out indium metal reserves on a large scale. Therefore, under the joint action of these two forces, the indium price will maintain a range fluctuation in the range of 2400-6000 yuan / kg. Speculators in the commodity market, after calculating the behavior of industrial arbitragers, will naturally accelerate the movement of indium price to a new equilibrium Center (for example, about 4200 yuan / kg according to the midpoint of 2400 yuan / kg and 6000 yuan / kg).
(3) In order to pursue the need of high profits, target enterprises will naturally accelerate the reserve of indium. For target enterprises, in order to obtain large-scale development and excess profits, two things need to be done: a) deeply integrate into hjt industrial chain and expand hjt battery end customers; b) increase indium reserves to improve excess profits. Only by doing these two things well can we improve the two indicators of volume and unit profit, so as to obtain the highest profit and market value. This further links the stock price of the target company with the commodity price.
To sum up, the linkage among photovoltaic industry, secondary stock market and commodity market will be very close, which has become an irreversible development trend.
7、 How should the cell enterprises in the photovoltaic hjt industry deal with it
In view of the fact that indium price has reached a three-year high and is likely to move further towards a new price range of 2400-6000 yuan / kg in the future, it is proposed to enter the market of hjt industry