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Major signal release! China may completely adjust its economic layout! (Depth)
Update Time : 2022-11-15 View : 1582
Recently, Liu He chaired a meeting of the Financial Committee of the State Council to study the current situation and mentioned a word:
"Disorderly tightening of capital market"
The significance behind it is significant!
It was also mentioned that:
With regard to real estate enterprises, it is necessary to timely study and put forward powerful and effective risk prevention and mitigation response plans, and propose supporting measures for transformation to the new development model.
Recently, Mayor Huang, who knows China's real estate market best, emphasized:
"Real estate is still a pillar industry, which must be stabilized, and the national team can enter the field for acquisition and merger."
"The government can buy back a part of inventory houses, buy back high-end houses for talents, and buy back low-end houses for new citizens."
This means that the turning point of China's economy has arrived!
one
The first half of China's economy is over, and the second half is opening up!
Just like playing a ball game, the playing method in the second half must be different from that in the first half. No matter which side you are, you must adjust your playing method to adapt to the new rhythm of the game.
The world is in great change, and every major event can only accelerate the arrival of change. The epidemic accelerated the elimination and innovation.
What will happen to the logic of making money from the first half to the second half?
In short: in the first half, our income came from "capital" growth; In the second half, our revenue came from "operational" growth.
Let's find out what capital is first? For example, land, houses, stocks, all kinds of superior resources (minerals, factories, etc.), that is, things that can take advantage of themselves. These things are often of great significance in the early development of a country, because they can revitalize the capital of the whole society, and can also increase leverage to drive round after round of economic development.
If any country, enterprise or individual wants to develop rapidly, it must solve the problem of original capital accumulation, which must go through a process of original capital accumulation. This process is like "horse racing enclosure". Once the productive forces have been liberated, we will increase the horsepower and go straight forward. Whoever has more horsepower will seize more territory, which belongs to the barbaric growth stage. In the era of "horse racing enclosure", there are two major dividends:
The first dividend: "demographic dividend", which targets manufacturing and real estate.
The second dividend, "traffic dividend", is aimed at the Internet industry.
These two dividends have enabled China to complete three major infrastructure tasks:
The first is the physical infrastructure, mainly relying on real estate;
The second is the infrastructure of the network, mainly relying on the Internet;
The third is the abundance of products, mainly relying on the manufacturing industry.
The completion of the three major infrastructure tasks has enabled China to complete the original accumulation of capital. In the first half of China's economy, namely, the 40 years from 1979 to 2019, the core problem we solved is the process of the original accumulation of capital.
It is worth mentioning that, looking at the world, only China's primitive accumulation process was completed without foreign aggression and colonial plunder, while the developed capitalist countries such as Britain, the United States and Japan relied on foreign colonial plunder to complete and accelerate this process.
For example, why are there World War I and World War II? This is because the capitalist countries began to divide the spoils unevenly, and the emerging capitalist countries (the United States/Germany, etc.) needed to carve up the world again.
So why can China complete this process in just 40 years? This is due to the globalization of modern trade, especially after our accession to the WTO, domestic products have rapidly penetrated the world, which is one of the important reasons for our original accumulation.
But now that we have completed the original accumulation of capital, we can't stay in this state all the time. What should China do next?
As we said at the beginning, China's economic growth is changing from "capital" driven to "operation" driven.
So what is operation? It depends on management, optimization and allocation to revitalize these resources, so that these resources can play a greater social value.
For example, there is no shortage of houses now, what is lacking is how to use the idle houses; Now there is no shortage of products. What is lacking is the channel to deliver the right products to the right people.
That is to say, the era of horse racing enclosure is over. Next, we must manage your land well. The era of wild growth has passed, and the future is the era of intensive cultivation; The era of gold mining has passed, and the future is the era of gold smelting.
In the past, we all relied on capital growth to make money. For example, how many times the house price has increased and how much the stock has appreciated. However, the era of rapid capital growth has passed. If we still want to follow the previous logic, sitting in a hole and waiting for appreciation is like waiting for a windfall.
According to this logic, how to measure the future of a city, enterprise and individual? It depends on the operating income of this entity:
For example, the GDP of many cities is still very high, but the public income is very low, which indicates that the city is on the decline;
For example, the market value of many listed companies is still high, but their profits are getting smaller and smaller, and even they begin to lose money. This shows that the enterprise is also on the decline;
For example, people in many first tier cities have tens of millions of real estate, but their annual income is less than 200000, and their income is not enough to maintain the operation of the family, indicating that this person is also living beyond his means.
Although the skinny camel is bigger than the horse, once the trend occurs, it is difficult to reverse, or even accelerate... These subjects will encounter a crisis one day, and then begin to sell their own capital (household property) to survive until it dies.
Of course, in this process, although the original accumulation of some people and enterprises is very low, their operating income is very high when light vehicles are used.
In the future, a large number of individuals and enterprises that make money through operation will be born. Instead of relying on capital, they will make money through new operations, new models and new channels. They are the mainstay of China's economy in the second half.
Where there is a big break, there is a big stand. When a group of people fall, there must be a group of people standing up.
two
In the first half and the second half of China's economy, each had its own task:
In the first half, with the promotion of capital, we should first build a good framework for the society through the innovation of "mode+skills".
In the second half, driven by the operation, we should fill in the "product+content" to make the society flesh and blood.
Capital comes before operation, which is often the two stages of the development of individuals and enterprises. This is also a process of "hard before soft":
For example, in the past few years, we built a lot of bridges, roads and houses. This is a kind of construction of hard facilities. The purpose is to make a good social framework. Only when the infrastructure of a society is perfect to a certain extent, can people better engage in scientific research and make products.
For example, we have created many Internet platforms in the past few years, such as e-commerce, social networking, transportation, catering, etc. These platforms are also built to build a framework for the society. These platforms greatly improve the operation efficiency of the society and bring many people opportunities for entrepreneurship and employment.
When we improve the basic framework of society to a certain stage through the power of capital, our next energy will be on the operation content.
Therefore, in the first half of China's economy, two major tasks were accomplished through the accumulation of capital: to build infrastructure and houses with reinforced concrete, and to launch various Internet platforms to improve social operation efficiency.
In the era of framework building, the development is relatively extensive and the order is not perfect, so many people are studying models and techniques, so speculators are more likely to make money, which is a reality.
Therefore, the people who operate these two kinds of capital make the most money. The first one is engaged in real estate, and the second one is successful in building various platforms.
In the second half, with the improvement of the business framework, only by operating the products and content well can there be a way out!
In fact, it is also a necessity: in an era of highly symmetrical information, or an era of more and more full competition, all models and techniques will become more and more doorless, and capital will have nowhere to stay.
In the first half of the economy, a person's success has nothing to do with his ability and contribution. As long as you are brave, can play routines, by hook or by crook, you can succeed.
But the second half was different. The Internet was more and more developed, information was more and more symmetrical, intermediate links were less and less, opportunities were more and more equal, channels were more and more open, and resources were more and more transparent. In an era of highly symmetrical information and value, every opportunity was reserved only for those who could best match it. The best technology (tool) will be mastered by the person who is best at using it; The most valuable ideas will also be acquired by the most contributing people.
Therefore, this is also an era of excess routines. Everyone is familiar with and masters various routines. When everyone is using routines, those who are thoughtful, wandering and valuable have become the most popular people.
From now on, opportunities will become more and more fair, and laws and regulations will become more and more perfect. The society has bid farewell to the barbaric growth period and started to develop in depth/refinement. If one wants to succeed, he must rely on the value you can create. We are entering an era in which "value" decides everything.
In an era of highly symmetrical values, everyone can only get the things that match him. Once his own things exceed his ability/value, there will be trouble.
Therefore, in the future, we must focus on operating products and content or services, instead of relying on various shortcuts or speculation, and no longer rely on the power of capital.
I often say that the real good times in China have just begun, because the upgrade from "capital" to "operation" is not only different in social logic, but also can change the mainstream values of society.
An era in which everyone is immersed in products, content and operation is the best and healthy one.
From another perspective, in the first half of China's economy, everyone made money by speculation, while in the second half of China's economy, everyone made money by hard work.
It can also be understood in this way: in the second half of China's economy, the most typical feature is that only diligent and good people can earn money.
This sentence is very popular, but simple.
three
Looking at human society, we can find that human development can not be separated from a law, that is:
Short term opportunity, medium term ability and long term character.
A person's success depends on opportunities at the beginning, but at a certain stage it depends on ability. If a person wants to remain invincible for a long time, he must have excellent character, or he will fall down.
It can also be understood in this way: birth determines how high your starting point is; Ability determines how fast you develop; Character determines how far you can go in the end.
In the same logic, there is a rule for the development of enterprises:
Short term marketing, medium term mode and long-term product.
The success of an enterprise, at the beginning, often needs to take advantage of the momentum and do a good job in marketing. However, at a certain stage, the model must be the most advanced and in line with the trend of the times.
However, if an enterprise wants to develop in the long run, it must be able to provide excellent products or services, otherwise it will not continue to play.
There have been many such cases around us: such enterprises as Huang Taiji and LeEco have had unlimited success. They either rely on wind outlets or rely on marketing, but we have seen the current situation.
The development of cities can not be separated from a rule, which is:
Short term policy, medium term population and long term service.
The success of the city, at first, needs to pay attention to policy support. Later, the inflow of people is the key, and whether it can attract creative young people is the core.
But the real core competitiveness of a city is its public service ability, such as efficiency, medical care, education, transportation, welfare, etc., which determines the long-term development of the city.
From the above discussion, we can conclude two social laws:
1: All human competition, in the final analysis, is "character" and "product" competition.
2: All human victories are the victories of "values"!
four
In the first half of China's economy, many people's prosperity seems to be the ability, but actually it is more the product of speculation.
Funny thing is, these people always think that they are successful when they succeed, and they think they can rest easy. They completely forget the rule that "hard work brings wealth, and opportunism brings disaster". Therefore, many people return to poverty seemingly because of bad luck, but behind it is retribution and law.
Some people will say: No, many people with good character and values around them are excluded by those who are evil.
Indeed, the extensive development model in the past must have resulted in a crude society. Under this social structure, everyone is pursuing short-term interests and pursuing the idea of taking a handful of money. Only when people become vulgar can they survive and live a better life. Many people become brazen, while those who emerge from the mud without pollution are excluded.
What I want to say is that the progress of human civilization and the development of countries, enterprises and individuals have always been tortuous, and even partial setbacks have always occurred. It is abnormal not to take many detours. But the general direction never goes wrong.
The world seems unfair. Some people become powerful, and some talented people are hidden. But if we take a longer time, stand a little higher and look at the society a little further, we will find that it is really fair.
Because with the economic transformation, there will inevitably be a phenomenon, that is, the reorganization of wealth. The logic of wealth restructuring is that wealth is always reserved to those who deserve it. The fairest thing about Chinese society is that once a person's IQ and wealth do not match, there are 100 ways to harvest you in this society.
For example, those who accept the Ponzi scheme are often at the bottom of the society. Because their IQ is not enough to control the wealth they own or inherit, they should let usurers and pyramid sellers harvest their wealth and increase the "liquidity" of social wealth.
The so-called game of drumming and passing flowers is passed from high IQ to low IQ, and it is inevitable that it will be passed to you unless you can find a person whose IQ is lower than yours.
In the Internet era, information has become more and more transparent. In this era, people are constantly identifying all kinds of fools, putting them at the bottom of the society and enslaved them.
At the same time, this era is also constantly finding smart people, holding them up, letting them control their wealth, and then managing and leading the society.
Therefore, money earned by luck is often lost by strength.
The world seems unpredictable and the times are changing with each passing day. However, there is an invisible force controlling the operation of society!
This is called "Heavenly Way".

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