The Proposal of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China on Formulating the Fourteenth Five Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development and the Vision for the Year 2035 (hereinafter referred to as the Plan Proposal), which was deliberated and adopted at the Fifth Plenary Session of the 19th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China, clearly stated that "adhere to the overall national security concept, implement the national security strategy", "ensure the security of energy and strategic mineral resources", "Promote the energy revolution, improve the energy production, supply, storage and marketing system, and strengthen the domestic oil and gas exploration and development", "accelerate the construction of a new development pattern with the domestic big cycle as the main body and the domestic and international double cycle mutually promoting". The Planning Proposal also proposes to "develop strategic emerging industries and accelerate the growth of new generation information technology, biotechnology, new energy, new materials, high-end equipment, new energy vehicles, green environmental protection, aerospace, marine equipment and other industries". The security of strategic minerals has been raised to a new important height of national security. This also means that during the "Fourteenth Five Year Plan" period, strategic emerging industries will develop rapidly, and there will inevitably be a huge demand for strategic mineral resources.
From a global perspective, with the accelerated pace of technological innovation integration and development in multiple fields, countries have given unprecedented support to the development of strategic emerging industries, and their attention and related actions in strategic resource control and reserve are also unprecedented consistent.
Intensified international competition of strategic minerals
Michael T. Clare, an American global security expert and defense analyst, pointed out in "Resource War: A New Scene of Global Conflict" that resource contention is the fundamental cause of international conflicts, and conflicts between countries are essentially attributed to the contention for scarce strategic resources. This also reflects from a deeper perspective that international competition in the field of scarce mineral resources is an important source of competition among large countries in a broader sense.
At present, the global mining industry is in a period of deep adjustment due to multiple internal and external factors. The emerging new changes are profoundly affecting the adjustment of the global mining structure. However, all countries have the same goal in fighting for the commanding heights of technological development in strategic emerging industries.
Whether it is the "Presidential Manufacturing Industry Revitalization Plan" of the United States or "German Industry 4.0", the developed economies have focused on new energy, new materials and other strategic emerging industries in their implementation of the "reindustrialization" strategy in recent years, especially with the increasing application of strategic key minerals in new energy development, electronics industry, especially in defense and military industries, their importance has become increasingly prominent. This also accelerated the shift of the focus of the world's competition for mineral resources from bulk minerals to scarce strategic mineral resources.
In order to cope with the competition among large countries in the field of scarce mineral resources, major developed countries such as the United States, the European Union, and Japan have successively passed laws to strengthen national control and strategic reserves of strategic minerals, aiming to gradually reduce their dependence on major exporters of rare mineral products such as China, so as to provide adequate and stable raw materials for the development of their emerging industries.
As early as 2006, the Japanese government put forward the "National Energy Resources Strategic Plan", which is led by the Ministry of Economy and Industry of Japan. In addition to the rare metals and other strategic materials that must be stored as required by national laws, the Japanese government also includes platinum, indium, rare earth and other metal strategic materials. The Department of Resources and Energy of the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry of Japan specially organizes enterprises and academics covering the whole industrial chain of rare metals to study and ensure the stable supply of 31 kinds of rare mineral resources, including vanadium, chromium, manganese, cobalt, nickel, molybdenum, gold, silver and copper, and incorporate their research results into the national policy "strategic planning".
In 2019, the United States formed an alliance with 9 countries including Australia, Brazil and the Democratic Republic of the Congo through the Energy and Resource Governance Initiative. These countries are the main sources of imports of mineral products of China (for example, about 95% of imported cobalt ore, 85% of iron ore, 60% of nickel ore and 40% of copper ore are from the above countries) and overseas mining investment (about 80%~90% of overseas equity resource output is iron ore, copper ore and cobalt ore, and 60% of lithium ore is from the above countries). Trump issued a presidential decree, proposing a federal strategy to ensure the reliable supply of its so-called key minerals, and regarded China as a competitor of key minerals.
On September 3, 2020, the EU updated its list of key raw materials, including 30 kinds of raw materials with significant economic and strategic value, such as rare earths. The EU believes that these raw materials not only have significant economic value, but also contain supply risks, which affect the EU's industrial layout and investment in research and development. The 2020 list includes 30 key raw materials. In contrast, there were 14 kinds in 2011, 20 kinds in 2014 and 27 kinds in 2017, which shows the trend that the EU continues to expand the scope of the concept of key raw materials.
Some rich countries with strategic mineral resources have also adjusted their mining policies. For example, Indonesia prohibits the export of nickel ores. Congo (DRC) raised cobalt royalty from 2% to 10%, and imposed a 50% tax on excess profits. In December 2019, Myanmar closed the customs on the grounds of environmental protection, resulting in the interruption of China's heavy rare earth import.
From this point of view, the focus of mineral resources competition among major countries in the future will be the competition of strategic minerals that support the development of core technology and high-tech industries. However, due to the uneven geological distribution of strategic minerals, there is a high supply risk, and the level of political stability of resource countries and the geopolitical relationship between countries will have a great impact on the security of strategic minerals.
The imbalance between supply and demand of domestic strategic mineral reserves will continue
Strategic key mineral resources refer to mineral resources that are critical to national economic development and national defense security, and at the same time have great risks in terms of supply.
In 2016, the National Mineral Resources Plan (2016-2020) approved by the State Council included oil, natural gas, shale gas, coal, coalbed methane and uranium as energy minerals; Metal mineral iron, chromium, copper, aluminum, gold, nickel, tungsten, tin, molybdenum, antimony, cobalt, lithium, rare earth, zirconium; A total of 24 kinds of non-metallic minerals, such as phosphorus, potassium salt, crystalline graphite and fluorite, are included in the strategic mineral directory.
At present, about 2/3 of China's strategic minerals need to be imported, including oil, iron ore, chromite, copper, aluminum, nickel, cobalt, zirconium and other foreign dependence has exceeded 70%. Overlapping the impact of the COVID-19 on the global market and the dramatic changes in the global political landscape, the severe situation of supply chain security and transportation security has intensified. China's strategic mineral resources supply security will become a new important topic.
The data of China Mineral Resources Report 2020 released by the Ministry of Natural Resources in October 2020 shows that by the end of 2019, the reserves of 34 kinds of mineral resources in China's major minerals had increased. Among them, coal increased by 0.6%, the remaining proven reserves of oil decreased by 0.5%, natural gas increased by 3.0%, and shale gas increased by 77.8%. The reserves of non oil and gas mineral resources increased, with manganese ore increasing by 5.6%, lead ore by 6.7%, zinc ore by 6.8%, bauxite by 5.7%, tungsten ore by 4.6%, molybdenum ore by 5.4%, antimony ore by 4.8%, gold ore by 3.6%, magnesite by 12.9% and graphite by 21.4%; Nickel ore (- 9.4%), fluorite (- 6.3%) and boron ore (- 4.3%) are the minerals with obvious decline. The increase in coal was significantly lower than that of the previous year. Manganese ore, copper ore, lead ore, zinc ore, tungsten ore, molybdenum ore, silver ore and other major metal minerals increased significantly, while iron ore, nickel ore, tin ore and gold ore decreased significantly.
Statistics from relevant institutions show that, except for six minerals, such as tungsten, molybdenum, antimony, tin, rare earth and graphite, the resource reserves of 15 strategic minerals in China, such as oil and gas, iron, copper, aluminum and nickel, account for less than 20% of the world's total. In particular, the reserves of oil, which affects energy security, account for only 1.5% of the world's total, and the reserves of coal account for only 13.2% of the world's total. In terms of quantity, more than 2/3 of China's strategic mineral resource reserves are at a disadvantage in the world.
From the demand side, in 2019, the import of crude oil, natural gas, coal, iron ore and copper concentrate accounted for about 85% of China's total imports of mineral products. Among them, the import volume of crude oil, coal and natural gas reached 510 million tons, 300 million tons and 100 million tons respectively, and the dependence on foreign countries was 78%, 7% and 43% respectively; The import volume of iron ore and copper concentrate (in kind) reached 1.07 billion tons and 22 million tons respectively, and the dependence on foreign countries was 85% and 78% respectively. More than 2/3 of the strategic mineral resources rely on imports, and the dependence on foreign countries remains high.
The growth of new resource reserves of mineral resources can not keep up with the growth rate of demand. At the same time, the continuous decline in investment in geological exploration further aggravates the shortage of reserve resources. The data shows that in 2019, the national geological exploration investment was 99.34 billion yuan, an increase of 22.6% over the previous year. Among them, the investment in oil and gas geological exploration was 82.129 billion yuan, up 29.0%; Investment in non oil and gas geological exploration was 17.211 billion yuan, down 0.9%. Non oil and gas mineral exploration is dominated by gold, lead-zinc, coal, uranium and copper deposits, accounting for 54.2% of the national investment in non oil and gas mineral exploration. Compared with 2018, investment in tungsten ore, tin ore, molybdenum ore and graphite increased, while investment in coal, iron ore, manganese ore, copper mine, nickel mine, gold mine, potassium salt, phosphorus ore and other minerals decreased significantly.
The rapid development of industrialization and urbanization in China has driven the rapid growth of mineral production and consumption, but the domestic production and supply of strategic minerals cannot keep pace with the actual consumption. In 2019, the output of coal, crude oil, iron ore (finished ore) and copper mine (metal) in China increased by 232%, 16%, 124% and 178% respectively compared with 2001, while the consumption increased by 200%~600%.
At present, China's consumption of mineral resources is equivalent to the total consumption of industrialized countries, and most of China's strategic mineral demand has not yet reached its peak. In particular, the demand for some strategic minerals (such as rare earth, cobalt, lithium, etc.) with small consumption will also grow rapidly, and the peak demand will be around 2035. Some strategic mineral products in short supply, such as crude oil and iron ore, may still rely on imports for a long time.
Ensuring the safety of strategic mineral supply
From a global perspective, major developed countries regard resource security as an important part of national security, pay close attention to the changes and impacts of the international competition pattern in the field of resources, and make long-term plans for the development and utilization of key mineral resources and strategic reserves on the basis of comprehensive and systematic analysis and assessment of the criticality of mineral resources products and main raw materials. Including the policy adjustment of the utilization of strategic key mineral resources in China, as well as the international coordination in the field of strategic mineral resources in the international scope, and taking technological innovation as the main direction of improving the resource guarantee ability to reduce the actual consumption of strategic minerals and external dependence.
As far as the domestic situation is concerned, in 2016, the former Ministry of Land and Resources put forward that 24 strategic minerals included in the catalog should be taken as the key objects of macro-control and supervision and management of mineral resources, strengthen guidance and differential management in resource allocation, financial input, major projects, mining land and other aspects, improve resource security supply capacity and development and utilization level, and set about establishing a monitoring and early warning mechanism for strategic minerals, establish early warning indicators Safety critical value and comprehensive evaluation model, systematically analyze the supply and demand of domestic and foreign mineral products and resource situation, and strengthen the early warning capability of resource security in response to major international conflicts; Establish a strategic mineral monitoring and early warning reporting system to support government decision-making and guide industry development. In January 2020, the Ministry of Natural Resources issued the Opinions on Several Issues Concerning Promoting the Reform of Mineral Resources Management (for Trial Implementation), which is responsible for the transfer and registration of mining rights of 14 important strategic minerals, such as oil and hydrocarbon natural gas, and strengthening the control of bulk minerals in strategic minerals through mineral resources planning.
For the security guarantee of domestic strategic mineral resources, relevant experts suggested that we must attach great importance to enhancing our ability to control ourselves, make efforts from the top-level design, and fully guarantee the security of resource supply and the whole industrial chain. Focusing on the development needs of strategic emerging industries, we should continue to guarantee investment in exploration, promote the adjustment of mineral exploration structure and optimization of exploration layout, increase targeted investment in the exploration of strategic minerals such as oil and gas, lithium, cobalt, and ionic rare earth, take into account the exploration of iron, copper and other large and scarce minerals, and strive to increase national resource reserves. We should take the "the Belt and Road" construction as an opportunity to deepen international cooperation in mining, make full use of China's mining and smelting technology advantages of some strategic minerals, and deeply participate in the cooperative development and utilization of strategic key minerals. At the same time, moderately open the domestic market, establish a strategic mineral cooperation organization, encourage resource countries, supplier countries, and demander countries to join the organization, establish mechanisms such as technical cooperation, market opening, supply priority, and financial support, build a supply chain guarantee system from supplier countries through channel countries to consumer countries, and fully integrate into the new pattern of international strategic mineral resources economy. We should effectively implement the strategic mineral resources protection and reserve project, establish a mixed reserve mechanism with the joint participation of the government and enterprises and the combination of mining and storage, and establish a mineral resources reserve system that focuses on product reserves, supplemented by production capacity and production area reserves.
Source: China Mining News