Considerations on the security of strategic mineral resources in china
Tian Yuming 1,3, Ju Yitai 1,3, Zhou Shangguo 2,3
1 China Metallurgical Geology Administration
2 The First Bureau of China Metallurgical Geology Administration
3 Mineral Resources Research Institute of China Metallurgical Geology Administration
0 Introduction
1 Basic Core of Mineral Resources Security
1.1 Connotation of mineral resources security
1.2 Mineral resources serve all aspects of the national economic production process
2 Global strategic (key) mineral resources competition
2.1 Strategic (key) mineral competition situation of major countries
2.2 China's strategic mineral research process
2.3 Competitive Situation of China's Strategic Mineral Resources
3. China's mineral resources security situation
3.1 Mineral resource reserves and potential
3.2 Demand side situation analysis of strategic mineral resources
3.3 Supply side situation analysis of strategic mineral resources
3.4 Current situation of China's strategic mineral resources and mineral products trade
3.5 China's strategic mineral resources guarantee situation
3.6 There are four major contradictions
Thoughts and Suggestions on the Security Guarantee Mechanism of China's Strategic Mineral Resources
00
introduction
  So far, the national security system has included 16 basic aspects including "resource security" (Wu Chuguo et al., 2021).   In the face of the unpredictable international situation and the complex and sensitive surrounding environment, China's strategic mineral resources play an important role in the international market and have important strategic significance in safeguarding national security. The epidemic has exposed the risks of supply chain security and transportation security. The frequent fluctuations in the prices of iron ore and other bulk mineral products in international trade and the frequent supply chain disruptions have made the security guarantee situation of China's strategic mineral resources more severe.
Most of the previous studies on the security guarantee of strategic mineral resources focused on the deployment of mineral resources exploration and development projects and the security guarantee mechanism, while the four major issues related to the security guarantee of strategic mineral resources were rarely involved, namely, the relationship between top-level design and supply chain stability; Strategic layout and industrial chain linkage development relationship; The conflict between the superior law and the subordinate law of mineral law; The relationship between ecological protection and scientific development of mining economy. These four relationships are crucial factors to ensure the safety of strategic mineral resources, and this paper will actively explore them.
01
Basic Core of Mineral Resources Security
Mineral resources are the "food" and "blood" of industry. The basic core of mineral resources security includes two aspects: first, the connotation of mineral resources security; Second, mineral resources serve all aspects of the production process of the national economy.
1.1 Connotation of mineral resources security
The concept of mineral resources security is embodied in the following aspects: the supply of mineral resources is relatively free from threat and danger, and its dialectical unity connotation is: at the critical moment, the supply chain of the industrial chain is stable and unblocked, able to withstand the supply, reliable and effective, and will not be "stuck" in extreme cases, as shown in Figure 1.
Figure 1 Basic Core of Mineral Resource Security
1.1.1 Be able to withstand the critical moment
Mineral resources are the basis of industry, and China is still a large manufacturing country. To achieve high-quality economic development, mineral resources security is particularly important. At the critical moment, we will ensure that the market supply does not rise sharply, does not fall sharply, keeps blocking, and keeps supplying. At the critical moment when we are "stuck", we will be able to withstand the supply, keep stable, meet the people's aspirations for a better life, and ensure that the people can get access to public goods.
1.1.2 Reliable and effective supply at critical moments
Sustainability refers to the long-term supply of mineral resources, not overnight; Reliability refers to stable supply without willful interruption; Effectiveness means that supply plays a positive role rather than a negative role. Sustainability and reliability are the premise of mineral resources security, and effectiveness is the core of mineral resources security. The three are interconnected to form the internal logic of mineral resource security.
1.1.3 Relatively avoid being "stuck" at extreme moments
The extreme situation that the security of mineral resources is "choked" is manifested in the risk of interruption of the industrial chain and supply chain, especially in the aspects of geological exploration, mining development, transportation hub, product processing, inventory reserve, purchase and sales, and application of emerging industries, which often leads to shortage or interruption of market supply, and may become the key point in international disputes under special circumstances. The stability and smoothness of the industrial chain supply chain is the stabilizer to ensure the safety of mineral resources.
1.2 Mineral resources serve all aspects of the national economic production process
Mineral resources are the cornerstone of national economic and social development, and their security services follow the following process development logic:
Basic geology is the first step of paying attention to the earth, understanding the earth and understanding the earth, and the first step of "practice understanding" of mineral resources discovery. It focuses on solving the problems of earth system science and answering whether there are metallogenic conditions; Green exploration is a specific practice of combining geological exploration with ecological civilization. It is an iterative process of "knowing minerals - dissecting resources - re understanding in practice". It is located at the upstream of the industrial chain. It is extremely important. Is there any solution to mineral resources? How many? How much money is available? Green development is a specific practice of combining mining development with ecological civilization. It is a process of scientific and targeted utilization of mineral resources from the perspective of economic development. It is located in the middle of the industrial chain and mainly solves the problem of resources serving the downstream of the industrial chain; Mineral products processing is an important preparation process to support all aspects of the national economic construction. It is located in the downstream of the industrial chain and is a key link. See Figure 2.
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Figure 2 Production Process of Mineral Resources Serving the National Economy
02
Global strategic (key) mineral resources competition
Throughout the course of world economic development, a country that has grasped the initiative of resources has grasped the initiative of development. Mineral resources are likely to be the main disputes of competition, game, alliance and peace among countries. At present, the world is in a situation of great change that has not been seen in a century. The competition for minerals required by strategic emerging industries is intensifying. Countries have formulated and issued strategic reports to seize the commanding heights of a new round of competition for mineral resources.
2.1 Strategic (key) mineral competition situation of major countries
2.1.1 United States
Research on key minerals was carried out in 2008, and the List of Raw Materials for Key Minerals was issued in 2012; On July 21, 2017, Trump signed Executive Order No. 13806 "Evaluating and Strengthening the Elasticity of Manufacturing and National Defense Industrial Base and Supply Chain", and on December 20, Trump signed Executive Order No. 13817 "Federal Strategy to Ensure the Safe and Reliable Supply of Key Minerals". On December 21, the Department of Internal Affairs (DOI) of the United States issued Ministerial Order No. 3359 "Independence and Safety of Key Minerals"; On May 18, 2018, the US Department of the Interior released a list of "key minerals", a total of 35 minerals (see Table 1); On June 4, 2019, the U.S. Department of Commerce released the Federal Strategy to Ensure the Safe and Reliable Supply of Key Minerals.
Table 1 List of Key Minerals in Countries/Regions
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2.1.2 EU
The Raw Materials Initiative was launched in 2008, and the first list of key raw materials (14 kinds) was released in 2011. Since then, the list of key minerals has been updated every three years; The revised list in 2014 (20 kinds), the revised list in 2017 (27 kinds), and the third update in 2020 (30 kinds) are shown in Table 1.
2.1.3 Japan
In the 1960s, the minerals required by industry were analyzed, and the reserve minerals were determined in 1974; 7 new metals were added in 1983; In 2009, the Rare Metals Guarantee Strategy took 31 kinds of minerals as the priority strategic minerals; In 2015, 11 minerals applied to strategic emerging industries were added, as shown in Table 1.
2.1.4 Australia
On March 28, 2019, the Australian Key Minerals Strategy was launched, listing 24 key minerals, as shown in Table 1. The clear list will change with the development of understanding of the country's resource potential and the development of demand, technology and market for key minerals.
2.1.5 Russia
In 2018, the list of key minerals is listed in the Development Strategy of Mineral Raw Material Base of the Russian Federation in 2035, as shown in Table 1. The list is updated in a 5-6 year cycle.
2.1.6 UK
The list of risk minerals was released in 2011 and 2012, and updated in 2015. There are 41 kinds of minerals (groups), as shown in Table 1.
2.2 China's strategic mineral research process
In the 2016 National Mineral Resources Plan (2016-2020), 24 minerals including oil, natural gas, shale gas, coal, coalbed methane, uranium, iron, chromium, copper, aluminum, gold, nickel, tungsten, tin, molybdenum, antimony, cobalt, lithium, rare earth, zirconium, phosphorus, potassium salt, crystalline graphite and fluorite were included in the strategic mineral directory; The Outline for High Quality Development of Strategic Mineral Resources, 2020 － 2035, specifies 20 kinds of scarce minerals and 13 kinds of superior minerals to ensure the national economic security and national defense security, and comprehensively adds new minerals for many times. See Table 2 for the list of strategic minerals in China.
Table 2 Proposed Catalogue of Strategic Minerals in China
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2.3 Competitive Situation of China's Strategic Mineral Resources
The United States, China, the European Union, Japan and other major economies in the world are highly dependent on foreign mineral resources, which inevitably causes major economies to compete for resources.
The United States and Europe have entered post industrialization, their demand for bulk traditional minerals has begun to decline, and their demand for strategic emerging minerals is on the rise; With the advancement of industrialization and urbanization, China has implemented the "3060 double carbon target" to ensure the national economy and national defense security, and the support of strategic mineral resources has become prominent. The main supply sources of global strategic (key) minerals are shown in Figure 3.
Figure 3 Distribution of Global Major Strategic Mineral Production
Among the key minerals identified by China, the United States and Europe, there is a considerable overlap, which is difficult to avoid promoting competition and even international disputes. Among them, 17 minerals such as titanium, vanadium, rare earth, cobalt, lithium, niobium, tantalum, beryllium, zirconium, indium and graphite are the common concern of the three parties.
03
Situation of China's mineral resources security
More than 90% of China's energy, more than 80% of industrial raw materials and more than 70% of agricultural means of production all come from mineral resources. China is rich in total mineral resources and has a complete range of minerals (173 kinds), but the resource endowment is poor and the per capita resource is small. From the demand side, the demand for strategic mineral resources will remain a positive growth trend for a long time in the middle and late stages of industrialization and post industrialization development; From the perspective of security situation, the large strategic mineral resources that affect the national economic and social development will still be seriously short for a long time, and the dependence on foreign countries will remain high; From the supply side, it is found that the resource reserves are transformed into economically recoverable reserves, and there is a considerable stock; However, the investment in geological exploration in the upstream of the supply side is seriously insufficient and has declined year by year, so the structural reform of the supply side is imminent.
3.1 Mineral resource reserves and potential
3.1.1 International competitiveness of mineral resources
14 kinds of economically recoverable reserves in China's mineral resources are 18.8% higher than the global proportion of China's population, and 159 kinds of economically recoverable reserves are far lower than the global proportion of China's population. The reserves account for more than 30% of the world's minerals: 5 kinds of tungsten, molybdenum, vanadium, rare earth, titanium, etc; The reserves account for 20% - 30% of the world's total, including tin, antimony, graphite and lead; There are 5 kinds of zinc, magnesite, fluorite, coal and iron with reserves accounting for 10% - 20% of the world, as shown in Figure 4.
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Figure 4 Proportion of China's major mineral reserves in the world in 2020
(Note: The 18.8% horizontal line in the figure is equivalent to the global proportion of China's population, the same below)
3.1.2 Security guarantee of strategic mineral resources has good potential
In 2020, China has made a major reform in the classification of mineral resources and reserves, which is simplified into two categories: resources and reserves according to the logic of "whether there is", "how much there is" and "how much can be mined". Before the reform, the resource reserves were identified under the current technical conditions, and further exploration and economic evaluation were required for development and utilization; After the reform, the reserves are economically recoverable reserves, which directly provide security for the national economic construction. After analyzing and sorting out the China Mineral Resources Bulletin (Ministry of Natural Resources of the People's Republic of China, 2019202021), it was found that most of the resource reserves of bulk minerals are 2-14 times of the economically recoverable reserves. Very few are basically equivalent, and some are more than 30 times, indicating that China's strategic mineral resources security has good potential.
Table 3 Incomplete Statistics of Mineral Resource Reserves
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3.2 Demand side situation analysis of strategic mineral resources
3.2.1 China is the world's largest consumer of mineral resources
In 2020, the consumption of 24 kinds of mineral products in China will increase year on year, the consumption of 5 kinds of mineral products will remain basically unchanged, and the consumption of 15 kinds of mineral products will decrease. Among them, the consumption of 36 kinds of minerals ranks first in the world, 2 kinds rank second in the world, and 6 kinds rank 3-5 in the world; There are 22 kinds of minerals whose consumption accounts for more than 50% of the world's total (Figure 5).
Figure 5 Proportion of China's main mineral consumption in the world in 2020
3.2.2 Demand forecast of strategic mineral resources
China is in a critical stage of development in the middle and late stages of industrialization. The demand for large quantities of scarce mineral resources for national economic development will still operate at a high level, and the strategic mineral resources of new energy and new materials are still growing. It is predicted that the first phase (2035) of China's second centenary goal will basically realize modernization, and the cumulative consumption will be: the primary energy consumption will reach 10.2 billion tons of oil equivalent; 8.3 billion tons of crude steel, 205 million tons of refined copper, 495 million tons of primary aluminum, and more kinds of other mineral resources.
3.2.3 Prediction of peak demand for strategic mineral resources
The peak demand of mineral resources in China has reached 7 kinds of minerals before 2020 (including 2020); There are 9 types of peak demand from 2021-2025; There are 5 types of peak demand that will reach in 2026-2030; There is one peak demand that will reach from 2031-2035; By 2035, there are 13 types of demand that have no peak. In the future, China's demand for mineral resources will remain strong, but the growth trend will slow down.
3.3 Supply side situation analysis of strategic mineral resources
3.3.1 Mineral resources exploration team
China's geological exploration team is mainly composed of state-owned geological exploration team and private geological exploration team. The state-owned geological exploration team is the main force of geological exploration, and the private geological exploration team is a beneficial supplement. The state-owned geological exploration team is divided into three parts (Figure 6).
Figure 6 Basic Pattern of China's State owned Geological Prospecting Units
First, the China Geological Survey, under the management of the Ministry of Natural Resources, is mainly responsible for basic geological work, which is fully guaranteed by the central finance; Second, the six central geological prospecting units under the management of the State owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission of the State Council, which are public welfare enterprises, bear social responsibility and assume their own profits and losses, mainly undertaking green exploration; Third, the provincial geological exploration team managed by the provincial people's government has undergone incomplete reform, or partial reorganization, or partial reorganization, to serve the regional basic geology and green exploration