1、 Introduction to "Indium"
Indium is a rare and precious strategic metal, which is widely used in high-tech fields such as electronic computers, solar cells, photoelectric, national defense and military, aerospace, nuclear industry and modern information industry. At present, there is no other metal that can replace indium in the above fields, so indium has extremely important strategic value. At present, the world's proven metal indium reserves are only 16000 tons, which is 1/6 of the proven gold reserves. With 13000 tons of reserves, China is the world's largest supplier of primary indium.
2、 Use of Indium
Indium metal is mainly used in notebook computers, televisions, mobile phones and other new liquid crystal displays, contact screens, building glass, etc; As a transparent electrical grade coating, the use of ITO indium target material (accounting for 70% of the height of InU) has increased rapidly, making the demand for indium increase at an annual growth rate of more than 30%. The production of ITO target materials (used to produce LCD and flat screen) is the main consumption area of indium ingots, accounting for 70% of the global indium consumption; Secondly, the field of electronic semiconductor accounts for 12% of the global consumption; Solders and alloys account for 12%; Research industry accounts for 6%. The future application prospect of indium metal in flat panel display (ITO indium tin oxide), solar energy (CIGS copper indium gallium selenium thin film solar cell) and LED industry has increasingly become the mainstream development direction of global emerging industries, so the value of indium should not be ignored by investors.
3、 Metal Indium Price
As of September 13, 2021, the latest industry data of the Nonferrous Metals Association shows that the price of indium metal is currently about 1650 yuan/kg, and the international average price is 230 dollars/kg; The industry insiders told the Associated Press that the price of indium metal rose mainly because of the explosive growth of photovoltaic heterojunction cells. Indium is a rare metal. As long as the production capacity can keep up with it, there is huge room for price increase in the future. The price is 60% higher than that in August, and the current price of indium target material is about 30,000 yuan/kg. (The main technology of indium target material is in the hands of the Japanese industry, which holds about 95% of the global market share.) Internationally, the production cost of metal indium is about $80/kg.
4、 Calculation results and suggestions
Before forecasting the future demand for indium resources, this study first uses the data fitting method to obtain the expected values of five influencing factors, such as the annual GDP growth rate. Considering that the longer the data fitting method is used to predict the future values, the greater the error will be. Therefore, the prediction time in this paper is the next 12 years (that is, until 2030). See Table 2 for the calculation results.
It can be seen from the above calculations that by 2030, China's demand for indium resources will continue to grow, exceeding 300 tons in 2024 for the first time, and 400 tons in 2026. However, the growth rate will gradually slow down after 2028, and basically remain around 500 tons thereafter. Considering the future indium production capacity of China, the domestic output is likely to be unable to meet the demand for indium resources.
proposal
In recent years, China's demand for indium resources has maintained a rapid growth rate, with an average annual growth rate of 13% from 2000 to 2017. In particular, since 2007, China has entered the fast lane. In 2010, there was a super high growth rate of 58%. This is closely related to China's increasing demand for ITO target materials. It is expected that China's demand for indium resources will remain strong in the next 10 years or so. China is a country rich in indium resources. It has world-class indium deposits like Guangxi Nandan Dachang, and also has an increasingly developed smelting and processing capacity. However, objectively speaking, China's indium industry still has problems that need to be solved urgently, such as low resource utilization rate, backward product deep processing technology, and low profit margin, which restrict the development of the industry.
In order to better solve the above problems and make more effective use of indium, an important mineral resource with strategic significance, we believe it is necessary to establish a set of sustainable development strategies for indium resources that are suitable for China's national conditions. Specifically, it can be divided into three parts:
First, gradually adjust the industrial structure of indium. In order to avoid waste of resources and prevent environmental pollution, it is recommended to accelerate the structural adjustment of indium industry and eliminate backward production capacity in accordance with relevant national industrial policies. To speed up the layout and structural adjustment of indium smelting capacity is to strictly control the production scale of indium smelting in densely populated areas in the east, and should focus on imported raw materials and renewable raw materials for production, and earnestly implement the strategy of developing urban mines; The indium smelting capacity in the eastern region should be gradually transferred to the western region, which is rich in mineral resources and large in environmental capacity, to optimize the layout of China's indium smelting industry. Secondly, focus on the centralized recovery and large-scale production of indium. According to the conditions and requirements of resources, environmental protection, technology, safety and other aspects, implement cleaner production and gradually eliminate backward production capacity and traditional processes. Promote the whole industry to develop in a healthy, environmentally friendly and comprehensive way.
The second is to improve the level of technology and product development. Objectively speaking, in terms of using indium resources, the top priority we face is how to overcome technical problems and break through the technical blockade imposed by developed countries in Europe, the United States and Japan. Therefore, we need to increase the research and development of deep processing technology. Take ITO target as an example. For a long time, China lacks the production technology of high value-added indium products. This technology has been controlled by Japanese and Korean companies. Only a few domestic enterprises can produce large-sized LCD TVs. Therefore, our dependence on foreign countries in this area is still more than 90%. It is reassuring that some well-known enterprises in China have realized this problem, started layout as early as possible, and achieved some results. As mentioned above, Hanergy Group made strategic adjustment in 2009 and decided to enter the thin-film solar industry. It has successively invested tens of billions of yuan to acquire foreign advanced technologies, and then through upgrading and transformation, it has filled in the technical gap in CIGS at home. More domestic enterprises should be called on to actively develop the downstream deep processing technologies related to indium resources (such as indium alloy technology, semiconductor compounds, high-purity indium powder and other high-tech), constantly expand the application fields of indium, and improve the technical content of indium products.
Third, it is suggested that the collection and storage of indium should be carried out at the national level. Based on the above discussion, in the near future, it can be predicted that China's ITO target will achieve rapid development, and there is still a gap between the indium production capacity and the demand for indium. It is suggested that the collection and storage of indium should be carried out at the national level in a timely manner. This will not only effectively avoid the impact of international indium price fluctuation on indium production enterprises, but also contribute to the healthy and sustainable development of China's indium industry. Specifically, we should establish a strategic reserve system that focuses on national reserves and combines enterprise and private commercial reserves. The state reserves are mainly physical reserves, supplemented by resource reserves. Drive enterprise reserves and private reserves through national reserves. Effectively control the existing inventory and export through physical reserves, prepare enough indium resources for the future new energy and photoelectric industry, and maintain China's favorable position in the global market.
China Nonferrous Metals News 5. Rare Metals Concept Stock - Indium Resources Listed Company:
Ranking of listed companies producing indium:
1. Tin Industry Co., Ltd. (000960): In 2017, it was reported that the company has rich tin, indium, copper, zinc and other nonferrous metal mineral resources. Gejiu, where the company is located, is one of the regions with the most concentrated tin resources in China, known as the "Tin Capital" of the world. Gejiu mining area has good metallogenic conditions, broad prospects for prospecting, and the company's annual prospecting results are relatively rich. In 2015, the Company acquired 75.74% of the equity of Hualian Zinc Indium through major asset restructuring, establishing its market position as a leader in tin and indium.
2. Zhongjin Lingnan (000060): On March 2, 2011, the relevant personnel of the securities department of the company told the Fortune World TV channel "The Market Is Open Tonight" that the company's annual output of indium is less than 10 tons, mainly recovering indium from gold mines.
3. High Energy Environment (603588): In February 2018, it was reported that High Energy Environment planned to acquire 70.9051% equity of Hongda Environmental Protection with RMB 305 million. According to the announcement, Hongda Environmental Protection holds the Hazardous Waste Business License issued by the Environmental Protection Department of Guizhou Province. The approved business categories include zinc containing waste HW23 and non-ferrous metal smelting waste HW48. The approved business scale is 80000 tons/year, which is the largest in Guizhou It is a comprehensive utilization enterprise of hazardous wastes with the most complete qualification, and its main products include zinc ingot, crude indium, germanium concentrate, lead concentrate, etc. In 2017, the net profit was 27.9203 million yuan.
4. Tibet Everest (600338): The company's main business is smelting and comprehensive recovery of zinc, indium and other non-ferrous metals, and sales of electrolytic zinc, indium and other non-ferrous metal products. In 2014, the company plans to produce 38000 tons of zinc ingots and 48000 tons of sulfuric acid as its leading products; 11000kg of refined indium, 5000 tons of zinc sulfate and 1.95 tons of lead mud (lead content). The sales volume of zinc ingot, sulfuric acid, refined indium, zinc sulfate and lead mud (lead volume) were 38,000 tons, 46,100 tons, 10,900 kg, 8282 tons and 1285 tons respectively. The company holds 56.1% of the equity of Western Indium Industry, which recovers metal indium from the waste and intermediate materials produced by the zinc smelting branch and produces zinc sulfate monohydrate, with an annual output of 10 tons of refined indium and 10000 tons of zinc sulfate monohydrate. The company mainly sells nonferrous metals, including zinc ingots, aluminum ingots and lead ingots, and its leading product is "Lida" brand zinc ingots. (In 2013, Western Indium achieved a net profit of 4.4416 million yuan)
5. Zinc Industry Co., Ltd. (000751): the largest semiconductor metal indium producer in Asia, with an indium production capacity of about 30000 kg/year, accounting for about one tenth of the global total. Indium is widely used in LED, LCD, nuclear reactor control rods and solar cells. In 2011, the production of indium was 20.7 tons, a decrease of 9.1% over the same period of the previous year. (Undisclosed information in 2012 annual report)
6. Hongda Shares (600331): The company's main business is engaged in metallurgy, chemical industry, mining and hotels. Its main products are ordinary superphosphate, compound fertilizer, industrial sulfuric acid, zinc ingot, zinc alloy, zinc oxide, rare metals (molybdenum, indium, germanium), calcium hydrogen phosphate, monoammonium phosphate, potassium dihydrogen phosphate, ammonium bicarbonate, liquid ammonia, zinc oxide ore, etc.
7. Zhuzhou Smelter Group (600961): Zhuzhou Smelter Group is the largest indium producer in China. In September 2010, it signed a package of four contracts for product sales, selling a total of about 100-140 tons of indium ingots. Based on the indium ingot price published by Shanghai Nonferrous Network, the total transaction target is about 340-480 million yuan. Indium ingots are mainly used in the ITO (indium tin oxide) industry, which is widely used in LCD panels. The ITO industry accounts for 70% of the global indium consumption. In the other two emerging consumer areas, CIGS (copper indium gallium selenium) thin film solar cells and LED, aviation bearings and engine bearings, high-tech weapons and other products are inseparable from indium. However, the product has made limited contribution to the company's profits. (In 2013, the gross profit rate of rare and precious products was 1.33%, a decrease of 4.09% over the previous year, mainly due to the decline in the prices of gold, silver and copper.)
8. Luoping Zidian (002114): The company has successfully developed a number of resource comprehensive utilization production technologies that have reached the national advanced level, such as germanium and indium combined extraction, purification workshop residue treatment, leaching residue flotation of silver, and zinc powder plant milling process transformation, which can well realize the extraction of silver, germanium, indium, cadmium and other rare and precious metals from waste residue, and enhance the profitability of the enterprise
Author: Guo Laotan
Link: https://xueqiu.com/2030382516/197689170?ivk_sa=1024320u
Source: Snowball
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