On June 4, 1942, the Battle of Midway Island broke out.
Yamamoto, commander of the Japanese navy, personally planned and launched almost all the naval forces to attack Midway Island, a key military base, in order to directly threaten the West Coast of the United States, with the intention of forcing the United States to seek peace on its own initiative.
What the Japanese army did not expect was that one month before the naval war, the United States made a major breakthrough in cracking the Japanese communication system JN-25, and timely obtained the important information that the Japanese base camp would attack Midway Island. So Admiral Chester Nimitz, commander of the US Pacific Fleet, summoned all available aircraft carriers and set an ambush near Midway Island.
Midway Naval Battle
With the decisive advantage of information technology, the United States Navy, waiting for work at ease, successfully sank four major Japanese aircraft carriers in this campaign, and the main force of the Japanese Navy died out through this battle. Midway Island also became the turning point of the Pacific War, and the vast Pacific Ocean has become the home of the US military ever since!
79 years later, in 2021, the fierce battle between electric vehicles and fuel vehicles is going on.
The sea surface of Sulawesi Island, Indonesia, 7350 kilometers away from Midway Island, is calm and calm. People do not realize that the nickel laterite smelting technology has also made breakthrough progress. A warship named "electric vehicle" is quietly equipping two new weapons, high-pressure acid leaching (HPAL) and high nickel matte, at the port of Sulawesi.
They are about to launch a nickel revolution, and will completely overturn the nickel supply pattern, providing sufficient and cheap nickel supply for "electric vehicle" warships. These nickel will be used to manufacture a large number of fighter aircraft power batteries.
Like the American aircraft carrier many years ago, the "electric vehicle" warship ambushed in the Pacific Ocean, waited patiently for the aircraft, and was ready to launch a deadly attack on the huge fleet of traditional fuel vehicles. The goal was to break through its solid "cost" deck and establish the dominance of electric vehicles in the automobile ocean.
The success or failure of this campaign will have a significant impact on the future map of the automotive world.
1、 "Demon Nickel" Stared by Musk
On the evening of February 25, 2021, Elon Musk, CEO of Tesla, said on Twitter again that the biggest problem of the company's expansion of lithium ion battery production was "nickel shortage".
On January 6, 2021, Mathias Dpfner, CEO of Axel Springer, the largest digital publishing house in Europe, had an in-depth interview with Musk. In the interview, regarding the development of Tesla battery, Musk mentioned that "in fact, nickel is our biggest bottleneck".
This is not the first time that Musk expressed his desire for nickel. As early as the Q2 2020 financial report meeting, he shouted to the bosses of mining companies: "If you mine nickel in an environmentally efficient way, Tesla will give you a long-term big contract."
If Tesla will increase the annual production capacity of electric vehicles to 20 million by 2030, as previously announced by Musk, the scale of nickel required for these batteries will reach more than 30% of the total global nickel production in 2019.
According to this scale, Tesla has only one way to ensure the supply of nickel ore, that is, to acquire the world's top six tier one nickel (nickel products that can be used for battery materials) suppliers, namely Norilsk of Russia, Vale of Brazil, Jinchuan Group of China, Sumitomo of Japan, Glencore of Switzerland and BHP of Australia.
1. Nickel distribution and products
According to the ore properties, nickel ores mainly exist in two forms: nickel sulfide ores and laterite nickel ores.
Nickel sulfide ores are mainly distributed in high latitude areas such as Canada, Russia, Australia and South Africa. This nickel ore smelting process is mature and can be used to produce a variety of nickel products, but the resources are limited and the mining cost is high.
The nickel sulfide ore mainly adopts the pyrometallurgical process, forming high nickel matte (a nickel sulfide with high nickel content) as the intermediate product, and then producing nickel sulfate through the wet process, or producing electrolytic nickel, nickel powder, nickel beans and other pure nickel products through electrolysis.
Laterite nickel ores are mainly distributed in tropical countries within 30 degrees from the south to the north of the equator line, concentrated in the tropical subtropical region around the Pacific Ocean, mainly including Indonesia and the Philippines in Southeast Asia, Cuba and Brazil in the Americas, etc. Indonesia is the country with the richest nickel resources in the world.
Laterite nickel ore is rich in resources with low mining cost. Lateritic nickel ore is generally used to directly produce ferronickel or nickel pig iron by fire smelting, and then to produce stainless steel. A small part of lateritic nickel ore is used to produce nickel sulfate or electrolytic nickel by wet process.
Global nickel resource distribution
(Red is nickel sulfide ore, yellow is laterite nickel ore)
In the history of nickel, nickel sulfide ore once occupied the absolute dominant position in the supply of raw materials for a long time. Until 2007, benefiting from the maturity and application of RKEF and other processes, the technical route of using laterite nickel ore to produce ferronickel and then to manufacture stainless steel has been popularized. Laterite nickel began to rapidly replace the demand of nickel sulfide ore in the stainless steel field. By 2020, 70% of the nickel products produced worldwide will come from laterite nickel ore.
According to product properties, nickel is divided into primary nickel and secondary nickel.
First grade nickel refers to nickel products including electrolytic nickel, nickel powder, nickel beans and nickel blocks. These products are made from intermediate products of nickel sulfide ore and laterite nickel hydrometallurgy, with nickel content approaching 100%, and can be used in battery, electroplating, stainless steel, alloy and other fields.
The secondary nickel includes nickel pig iron and nickel iron. The nickel content of these products is low, generally below 15%, and they are mainly obtained by pyrometallurgy of laterite nickel ore, which is specially used for the production of stainless steel.
For a long time, nickel sulfate required for power battery production can only be made from primary nickel, and primary nickel products can only be obtained from sulfide ore and laterite nickel ore hydrometallurgy.
2. Market of nickel for battery
The annual output of nickel in the world is about 2.5 million tons (metal), of which stainless steel accounts for 85% of nickel consumption, and nickel for batteries accounts for 5%, about 125000 tons.
Power battery will contribute to the major consumption increment of nickel in the future.
According to the prediction of IEA, by 2030, it is conservatively estimated that the penetration rate of electric vehicles will be 15-20%, and the sales volume of new energy vehicles will be 23 million. By 2030, the global nickel consumption of new energy power batteries will reach 928000 tons.
This figure is nearly 40% of the global nickel production in 2020.
The problem is that the global production of sulfide ores is declining. As the main sulfide mines have been exploited for many years, the resource reserves, mining depth, ore grade and other conditions of the minerals have gradually become worse, resulting in rising costs and difficult to increase the output. The global output of nickel sulfide ores is declining. The output of nickel sulfide mines of Vale, Nornickel and Glencore, the top three nickel suppliers in the world, was still 519000 tons in 2013, and dropped to 422000 tons in 2019.
However, no new projects have been put into operation since 2012 for laterite nickel hydrometallurgy projects, and the nickel output of existing projects has always hovered around 240000 tons.
That is to say, the total supply of nickel sulfate for batteries will be reduced!
This cannot but cause panic among all new energy vehicle manufacturers, including Tesla.
At the same time, the output of secondary nickel produced by laterite nickel mine has grown rapidly, and will exceed 1 million tons (metal) in 2020. In particular, Indonesia's secondary nickel production has exploded after 2012, from 50000 tons to more than 500000 tons in 2020.
This is an awkward situation for nickel manufacturers, whose nickel output has grown rapidly, but the supply of first-class nickel required by the new expensive customers - electric vehicle enterprises cannot be increased.
Only with a revolution and great innovation, activate laterite nickel hydrometallurgy, and open up the primary and secondary nickel markets, can the fragmented nickel market be bridged to ensure the huge demand of lithium battery industry.
Surawesi, an island in Indonesia, is about to contribute this great value.
2、 Sulawesi, an island of nickel
In the afternoon of September 28, 2018, in Palu and Donggala, two coastal cities in Indonesia's Central Sulawesi Province, the peaceful life of residents was suddenly broken, and a magnitude 7.4 earthquake occurred locally with a focal depth of 10 km. This did not cause much panic for people who have been used to earthquakes, but almost no one would imagine that the real disaster followed.
The earthquake then triggered a large-scale tsunami. The tsunami in Palu Bay was 11.3 meters high, resulting in 2073 deaths, 10679 injuries, and 680 disappearances. It became the most serious marine disaster in Indonesia after the tsunami that swept across Southeast Asia in 2013.
Southeast Asian tsunami in 2004
Six days after the earthquake, on October 4, 2018, the Soputan volcano in North Sulawei Province erupted with ash and smoke as high as 6000 meters. Two months later, on December 16, 2018, Mount Soptan erupted again. This time, its ash column was more than 7000 meters high.
Soaptan volcano is 1783m high and is one of the most active volcanoes in Indonesia. Seven large-scale eruptions have occurred during 2003-2018.
Soptan Volcano eruption
Tsunami and volcanic eruption are both located in Sulawesi Island, a large island in central Indonesia and the 11th largest island in the world, with a total land area of 174600km. Sulawesi Island is located in the equatorial tropical rainforest climate zone, with abundant sunshine and precipitation, and the annual precipitation is more than 2500 mm.
Sulawesi Island has a strange shape, similar to a capital English letter "K". It stretches from four peninsulas to the northeast, east, southeast and south, so it is commonly known as "Great K Island".
Location of Sulawesi Island
Another identity of Sulawesi is that it is a member of the Pacific Island Arc. The Pacific plate and the Eurasian plate continued to collide over the past billions of years. The Pacific plate subducted under the Eurasian plate, creating earthquakes and volcanoes, and creating the Pacific island arc.
Earth plate movement
Formation mechanism of volcanic island arc
The active crustal movement has brought nickel in the deep crust to Sulawesi, and the rich sunshine and rain have weathered and denuded the rocks rich in nickel, creating rich laterite nickel resources on the surface.
Occurrence form of laterite nickel ore
This is the island with the richest nickel resources on the earth.
According to the data of the US Geological Survey, Indonesia's nickel resource reserves are 21 million tons, ranking first in the world and accounting for 24% of the world's reserves.
Research data shows that laterite nickel mines in Sulawesi Island account for 70-80% of the total nickel resources in Indonesia.
Distribution of mineral rights in Sulawesi Island (the red area is the mineral rights area)
The most famous landscape on the island is Qingshan Industrial Park, a large-scale industrial park.
3、 Take the lead in brother Qingshan's circle of friends
One day in April 2018, in the Castle Peak Industrial Park in Morowali County, Sulawesi Island, the luxurious Green Water and Castle Peak Hotel was glittering. The guests invited by the chairman of the board of directors of Castle Peak Holdings Xiang Guangda arrived one after another. The guests invited this time are Chen Xuehua, the boss of Huayou Cobalt Industry, and Xu Kaihua, the boss of Greenmei. The two private enterprises that have done the best in nickel cobalt hydrometallurgy in China.
Before the dinner, the two bosses had carefully inspected Qingshan's amazing industrial park. Since 2013, the first project of this industrial park has been constructed. Just seven years later, in 2020, Indonesia has become the world's largest producer of ferronickel and the world's second largest producer of stainless steel from a stainless steel importer. The annual output of stainless steel in the park has reached an amazing 3 million tons, more than the annual output of the United States.
Thanks to its great success in Indonesia, Qingshan Holding Group controlled by Xiang Guangda ranked 329 on the latest list of Fortune Global 500 in 2020 with a revenue of 260 billion yuan, surpassing Xiaomi and Gree, and only one place behind Li Jiacheng's Changjiang Industry.
Xiang Guangda's goal of inviting guests is very clear. In view of the fact that Qingshan has no deep accumulation in the field of hydrometallurgy, he invited two enterprises to build a nickel cobalt hydrometallurgy plant in Qingshan Industrial Park, and Qingshan shares in it. Xiang Guangda, a bridge ace, believes that this is the best way to quickly enter the field and accumulate experience.
Prior to this, in 2018, the global sales volume of new energy vehicles reached a staggering 2.01 million, with a growth rate of 60%. However, nickel sulfate, the main material for electric vehicles, cannot be produced in Indonesia.
At that time, Qingshan Industry had dominated the global stainless steel industry, with a surprising 23% market share. Qingshan's stainless steel was processed into ferronickel from laterite nickel ore, and then produced stainless steel.
However, the hidden danger of ferronickel overcapacity has begun to emerge. Chinese, Indonesian, Canadian and French companies have built and expanded ferronickel capacity. In 2018, the ferronickel capacity under construction of Chinese enterprises in Indonesia alone reached an incredible 2.15 million tons, which is equivalent to doubling the total ferronickel capacity in Indonesia. However, the global stainless steel consumption in the downstream of ferronickel has fallen into a low growth rate for many years, and there is no sign of trend change. After these capacities under construction are put into operation, a bloody storm in the ferronickel market will be inevitable.
To make matters worse, Qingshan, which has absolute cost and capacity competitiveness, has begun to be targeted by stainless steel anti-dumping agencies of various countries, and the situation is getting worse and worse. Vietnam was the first to take the initiative. Since 2016, the country has imposed an anti-dumping duty of 13% on Indonesian cold-rolled stainless steel. Qingshan was then sued by domestic peers to the Ministry of Commerce. In 2019, the Ministry of Commerce of China decided to impose an anti-dumping duty of 20.2% on Indonesian stainless steel billets. Then the European Union and South Korea took action, imposing anti-dumping duties of 17% and 29.68% respectively on Indonesian stainless steel.
It is obvious that Aoyama is the biggest victim of continuous anti-dumping, and these anti-dumping actions also send a clear signal to Aoyama: Aoyama's crazy expansion in the stainless steel field can no longer be tolerated by its global peers!
When the amazing data of new energy vehicles appeared at Xiang Guangda's desk, he was keenly aware that this was a historical opportunity for the nickel industry and the best opportunity for Aoyama to jump out of the encirclement and suppression of its nickel iron and stainless steel businesses by various countries.
The results of this investigation were fruitful. Huayou Cobalt Co., Ltd. and Greenland soon announced the establishment of joint ventures with Qingshan to produce nickel cobalt hydroxide by hydrometallurgical high pressure acid leaching (HPAL) process for the production of nickel sulfate for batteries.
In July 2019, just one year later, Chairman Xiang Guangda hosted Yu Bo, Chairman of the Board of Directors of Hongshang Holdings, and Li Changdong, President of Guangdong Bangpu, at this luxury hotel built by himself in Qingshan.
Hongshang Holding is a major shareholder of Luoyang Molybdenum Industry, a mining giant, while Guangdong Bangpu is a holding subsidiary of Ningde Times, a battery giant, and also a platform for the latter to distribute raw materials.
There is no doubt that the banquet and investigation are still very successful. Soon after, Luoyang Molybdenum Industry participated in the Sino Vietnam project jointly invested by Huayou Cobalt Industry and Qingshan Industry, and Guangdong Bangpu joined the Qingmeibang project jointly invested by Greenmei and Qingshan Industry.
A year later, Zhongwei, the world's largest exporter of precursors, also inspected the industrial park of Xiang Guangda. Since then, Qingshan Holding's Shanghai Jingmao, as a strategic investor, has participated in the IPO of Zhongwei Shares. Five months later, Zhongwei announced that it would use laterite nickel ore to produce high nickel matte in Indonesia.
So far, the four precursor giants have gathered in Morovalli.
The Morowali Industrial Park in Indonesia, built in Qingshan, has a total planned land area of 2000 hectares. The park integrates the industrial chain of "mining - ferronickel smelting - stainless steel smelting - hot rolling - cold rolling and downstream deep processing"