Source: "omdia"
By 2021, the emerging silicon carbide (SIC) and gallium nitride (GAN) power semiconductor markets are expected to exceed $1 billion by 2021 due to the demand for hybrid electric vehicles, power supplies and photovoltaic (PV) inverters. According to omdia's "SiC and Gan power semiconductor report 2020", by the end of 2020, the global sales revenue of SiC and Gan power semiconductors is expected to increase from $571 million in 2018 to $854 million. The average annual double-digit growth rate in the next decade will exceed US $5 billion by 2029. The total amount of these long-term market forecasts is about $1 billion lower than last year's version of this report. This is because demand for almost all applications has slowed since 2018. In addition, the average price of equipment will decrease in 2019. Please note that the equipment forecast used to create this year's forecast started in 2019 and did not take into account the impact of the covid-19 pandemic.
Figure 1: global market revenue forecasts for GaN and SiC Power Semiconductors (US $m)
SiC Schottky diodes have been on the market for more than ten years. In recent years, SiC metal oxide semiconductor field effect transistor (SiC MOSFET) and junction gate field effect transistor (SiC JFET) have appeared. There are more and more SiC power modules, including hybrid SiC modules (including SiC diodes with Si insulated gate bipolar transistors (IGBT)) and all SiC modules including SiC MOSFETs (with or without SiC diodes). SiC MOSFETs have proven to be very popular among manufacturers and have been offered by several companies. Several factors contributed to the decline in average prices in 2019, including the launch of 650, 700 and 900 volt (V) sic MOSFETs priced to compete with silicon superjunction MOSFETs, and increased competition among suppliers. Richard Eden, senior chief analyst at omdia power semiconductors, said: "the fall in prices will eventually lead to faster adoption of SiC MOSFET technology. In contrast, Gan power transistors and Gan system ICs are only recently on the market. Gan is a kind of wide band gap material, which has similar performance advantages as SiC, but has higher potential to reduce cost. These price and performance advantages are possible because Gan power devices can be grown on silicon or sapphire substrates, which are cheaper than SiC. Although Gan transistors are now available, sales of Gan system ICs from power integration, Texas Instruments and Navitas semiconductor are expected to grow at a faster rate. "
Market trend of SiC and Gan power semiconductors
By the end of 2020, SiC MOSFETs are expected to generate about $320 million in revenue, equivalent to that of Schottky diodes. From 2021, SiC MOSFET will grow at a slightly faster rate and become the best-selling discrete SiC power device. At the same time, although good reliability, price and performance are achieved, the revenue of each SiC JFET is expected to be much smaller than that of SiC MOSFET. "End users are very fond of the normally off SiC MOSFET, so it seems that SiC JFET will still maintain a special niche product," Eden said. However, despite the small number of active suppliers, SiC JFET sales are expected to grow at an alarming rate. " Hybrid SiC power modules, which combine Si IGBT and SiC diodes, are expected to generate sales of about $72 million in 2019, while complete SiC power modules will generate about $50 million in 2019. The complete SiC Power module is expected to reach more than $850. Revenue of $1 million will be reached by 2029 as they will be preferred for hybrid and electric vehicle powertrain inverters. In contrast, hybrid SiC power modules will be mainly used in photovoltaic (PV) inverters, uninterruptible power supply systems and other industrial applications, with a much slower growth rate.
What has changed since 2019?
Now, both SiC and Gan power devices have trillions of hours of device field experience. Suppliers, even new entrants to the market, demonstrate this by obtaining JEDEC and aec-q101 certification. SiC and Gan devices do not seem to have any unexpected reliability problems. In fact, they usually look better than silicon. The operating voltage of SiC MOSFET and SiC JFET is lower, such as 650V, 800V and 900v, so that SiC can compete with Si superjunction MOSFET in performance and price. Final products with Gan transistors and Gan system IC are in mass production, especially USB C power adapter and charger, which can quickly charge mobile phones and laptops. Similarly, many Gan devices, manufactured by foundry service providers, can provide growth of internal Gan epitaxial crystals on standard silicon wafers, and may expand production capacity indefinitely as production increases.
Growing GaN and SiC Power semiconductor market structure
The emerging markets of SiC and Gan power semiconductors are rapidly developing from entrepreneurial oriented businesses to large power semiconductor manufacturers. According to omdia's SiC & Gan power, this shift is coming as the market reaches critical size, with revenue expected to exceed $1 billion by 2021, thanks to the demand for hybrid and electric vehicles, power supplies and photovoltaic (PV) inverters. "The origins of the SiC and Gan power semiconductor industries are small, enthusiastic start-ups, many of which have now been absorbed by large, mature silicon power semiconductor manufacturers," said Richard Eden, senior chief analyst for omdia power semiconductors. Between 2016 and 2019, Littelfuse acquired monolith semiconductor, a SiC start-up, and IXYS semiconductor, a well-known company. On semiconductor entered the SiC market by merging with Fairchild, which previously acquired transic, a Swedish start-up. Later, microchip Corporation acquired microsem